Sesona Mdlokovana|Published
What actually happened
One correction first. Adwa fell without a fight. Federal troops and the Tigray Peace Force, a federally backed Tigrayan militia, entered on Sunday 11 October after TPLF-aligned fighters withdrew, according to residents. Mekelle was different. Al Jazeera reported nearly two weeks of heavy fighting, with federal air power and ground forces, before the TPLF alliance pulled out of the city. Adigrat fell days before Adwa.
The sequence suggests the TPLF is trading towns for time and preserving its force. That is my reading and not something its leaders have confirmed, and its vice president declined to comment on Adwa. A resident there said shops were shut and the hospital was looted overnight, a reminder that who enters a town matters as much as the fact of entering.
How the Pretoria peace came apart
The 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended a war that killed hundreds of thousands. Its bargain was an interim administration in Tigray, disarmament and the return of displaced people, and it frayed on all three. This year the unravelling sped up. On 8 April Addis Ababa extended the mandate of interim leader Tadesse Werede by a year. The TPLF called that a violation, revived the pre-war regional council and on 5 May elected its chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, regional president. Tigray was left out of the national elections on 1 June, and the party had already lost its legal registration for alleged involvement in rebellion.
Each side says the other broke the deal. The African Union and the United Nations urged both in May to use the agreement's own mechanisms, and the fighting suggests that appeal failed. The Tigrayan camp is also split. Getachew Reda, a former TPLF spokesman, now advises Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the Peace Force is a breakaway from Tigray's own army. This is a war inside Tigray as well as against it.
Eritrea and the widening circle
Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia's army from 2020 to 2022. Addis Ababa now accuses it of backing the TPLF and deploying troops on Ethiopian soil. Asmara has cut diplomatic ties and appealed to the United Nations, and the Security Council is due to discuss the tension at American request. The US-based Critical Threats project describes reports of Eritrean incursions as unconfirmed. Ethiopia has also accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting the rebels, and both deny it.
The geography explains the stakes. Adwa lies about 40 kilometres from the Eritrean border. Al Jazeera notes that a prolonged Tigray conflict keeps Ethiopian forces tied down and limits Addis Ababa's Red Sea ambitions, which gives Eritrea a direct interest. Federal forces also face Fano militia attacks on supply lines between Amhara and Tigray. Fighting on several fronts is a real possibility.
What to watch
In November 2020 federal forces took Adwa, then Mekelle, and declared victory. Tigrayan forces retook Mekelle by June 2021. Holding ground is harder than taking it, and three things will show whether this time differs. The first is whether federal authorities can restore services and restrain allied militias in the towns they now hold. The second is whether Eritrean troops are confirmed inside Ethiopia, which would change the character of the war overnight. The third is whether the African Union and the Security Council can revive a political track before positions harden.
The AU guaranteed the Pretoria deal and South Africa hosted the talks, so the continent has a stake in showing the agreement can still be mended. Retaking towns settles nothing about who speaks for Tigrayans.
Written by:
*Sesona Mdlokovana
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
Africa Specialist
**The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL.
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