Bitcoin's Next Move: Here's What to Watch

Crypto markets rebounded on Tuesday with a near 2% jump across the board, rising to $2.8 trillion total market capitalization, and Bitcoin once again testing key levels.

For traders and investors plotting their next moves, here’s what to watch:

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a 0-to-100 gauge of market mood, reads 51, a neutral reading between fear and greed, up three points from yesterday when it registered 49 points.

The macro backdrop is still tense. Brent crude oil trades near $110 a barrel amid attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and expensive oil feeds inflation by raising the cost of fuel and goods. Higher inflation raises the odds that the Federal Reserve keeps rates high or raises them again, which pushes Treasury yields above 5%. Higher yields pull money out of risk assets like crypto, and the Fed next meets on October 27 and 28.

Bitcoin trades at just below $83,000 on the daily chart, holding above both of its key moving averages after a bounce from the $80,000 area. It bounced in the confluence of the average price of the last 50 days (also known as EMA50) and the natural support of its most recent bullish movement.

The 50-day exponential moving average, or EMA50, gives more weight to recent prices, and that sits at $80,702.8. The 200-day EMA, a gauge of the long-term trend, sits at $76,123.1. With Bitcoin’s current price above both, and the EMA50 line above the EMA200, the trend structure remains bullish.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures how fast price has moved on a 0-to-100 scale, and that reads 53.34. Readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions and below 30 oversold, so 53 shows momentum that is neutral and slightly positive.

The nearest resistance is $87,371. Bitcoin has to close above it on the daily chart to confirm that the bounce is turning into a new leg higher.

Support is layered below. The first floor is $80,433, which lines up closely with the EMA50 at $80,703. The next is $76,140, almost exactly on the EMA200 at $76,123. Below that, the chart marks $72,671, $69,202, $64,263 and $57,972.

In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin pushes through $87,371 with rising momentum. The RSI would move toward the 60s, and price would have room to run before the chart shows another obstacle.

In the base scenario, Bitcoin ranges between $80,433 and $87,371. The RSI stays near 50, and the EMA50 keeps acting as a floor while resistance caps rallies.

In the bearish scenario, a daily close below $80,433 breaks the EMA50 and the support beside it. That would open a drop toward $76,140, where the EMA200 offers the next test. A close below it would shift focus to $72,671.

Key levels to watch: resistance at $87,371; support at $80,433 and $76,140, with $72,671 as the next floor if both give way.