US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels

Tehran, Iran – Dozens of ships were attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz in October as Iran and the United States compete to assert their authority over the waterway.

At least 12 ships were attacked in the week ending on October 16, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported late Friday, with one important caveat.

“UKMTO is struggling to accurately report true number of attacks with majority of vessels attacked refusing to report to UKMTO,” the maritime security organisation stated. It said it was aware of more incidents in the waterway via other sources but could not verify them due to a lack of information.

The same pattern has been true for the first half of October. The month has seen the highest number of ship attacks since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28.

Of the 12 vessels that were confirmed attacked, the organisation said half continued to their destination or reached port. One sank, two were disabled, and three were either damaged or had an unconfirmed outcome.

The UKMTO also reported a new type of attack on Saturday. The master of a tanker said their vessel was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fired from a small boat 78 nautical miles (equivalent to about 144km) northeast of Saudi Arabia’s city of Jubail, Eastern province, resulting in damage to the aft port quarter.

In recent months, the US has managed to increase energy transits through the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways through a shuttle system coordinated with Arab powers. But volumes have oscillated weekly due to rising Iranian attacks.

Oil flows through Hormuz were at 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd) over the seven days to October 13. This was about 68 percent of the 17.1 million bpd pre-war baseline, according to Kpler figures.

On Friday, Brent crude also touched $110 a barrel for the first time since May in light of ongoing attacks. The situation has been exacerbated by the Iran-aligned Houthis’ attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and their capture of the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Expectations that the conflict between the US and Iran was escalating have also impacted prices.

The US military has provided a starkly different outlook on the situation in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for roughly a fifth of global oil and natural gas flows before the war began.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper claimed in a video message late Friday that despite the Iranian attacks, 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week.

“Let me be clear: The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran,” he said, attributing the greatly increased ship attacks to “desperation” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The US military also claimed that it continues to prevent Iranian exports and imports via its southern ports through an “ironclad” naval blockade. It claims the blockade has cost Iran $25bn in oil export income, and that the US has recently seized $350m in Iranian cryptocurrency financing.

The UKMTO report said total outbound transit over the last seven days was 125 ships, with total inbound transits standing at 129. Over the week, most transits by the Western security agency were for dry bulk cargo, followed by tanker products and general cargo.

Tehran has not provided exact figures on how many vessels have been attacked, or how many are passing through the Hormuz, although it has said Washington is exaggerating numbers to project success of its naval campaign.

It comes as two vessels were reportedly hit by naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, with the US and Iran offering contradictory claims about the situation.

The IRGC has increasingly reported that vessels are hitting mines across the strategic waterway, which it says remains unsafe for vessels which do not coordinate with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, an entity set up during the war to manage passage through the Hormuz.

The latest claim came on Saturday, when the IRGC said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude oil caught fire after striking a mine while moving through an “unauthorised” route.

Iran’s state-run Press TV shared footage it says showed the tanker on fire. But CENTCOM said it had cleared the strait of naval mines, and that vessels are being struck by projectiles.

The latest incident “fact-checked” by the US military was on Thursday, when it said a civilian container ship, the M/V GFS Pride, was hit by an IRGC projectile, not by a mine as the Iranians had claimed. The vessel sank as it was being towed to shore.

The US has refrained from responding to any of the recent vessel attacks, but there are concerns that Washington could escalate the war after the November 3 midterm elections.

Diplomacy has not fully halted, with messages continuing to be relayed between the two parties by regional mediators like Pakistan, Qatar and others. But no breakthrough in talks is expected any time soon.

President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the US military to remain prepared for launching bigger attacks after the elections. Those attacks could potentially include using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, nicknamed the “mother of all bombs”, according to US media.

But Tehran has signalled that it intends to continue the attacks, with acting Defence Minister Majid Ibn Reza saying on Saturday that it will be Iranian missiles, not US bombs, that determine the future of the war.

“Your bombs will explode elsewhere; in your global reputation, the US economy, and even your electoral calculations,” he was quoted as saying by state media.