BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 1:07 p.m. ET · Source: Quaest poll for Globo
Key Facts
- What happened Quaest found 44% of voters fear the Bolsonaros’ return and 42% fear Lula’s reelection.
- The numbers Fear of Flávio Bolsonaro’s camp 44%, fear of President Lula 42%, a 2-point gap.
- Why it matters The gap sits inside the 2-point margin of error, four days before Sunday’s runoff.
- Fieldwork 2,154 voters interviewed in person from 17 to 20 October; TSE registration BR-08535/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (21 October, 1:06 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 21%), as of 21 October, 1:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A new Quaest poll finds that 44% of Brazilian voters fear the return of the Bolsonaro family to power, while 42% fear the reelection of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. CNN Brasil reported the result on Wednesday 21 October at 10:05 a.m. ET, four days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
33 national polls from 19 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The same survey has Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 45% and Lula at 44% in the runoff, which our Brazil election polls tracker lists with every other pollster. Quaest is a Brazilian polling institute, and the broadcaster TV Globo and the newspaper O Globo commissioned this survey.
What the Quaest Fear Question Found
Quaest interviewed 2,154 voters in person from 17 to 20 October, CNN Brasil reported. The survey has a 2-point margin of error at a 95% confidence level and is registered with the electoral court (TSE) under number BR-08535/2026.
Voters were asked which outcome they fear more: a return of the Bolsonaro family to power, or a second reelection for Lula. In the results, 44% chose the Bolsonaros and 42% chose Lula, Metrópoles also reported.
Why a Technical Tie Matters
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 2-point margin of error, the poll cannot say which fear is truly more widespread.
Fear is a measure of rejection, not of voting intention. A voter who fears one side may still stay home or cast a blank ballot.
How the Fear Numbers Sit Beside the Vote
In the same Quaest survey, Flávio Bolsonaro has 45% and Lula 44% of the runoff vote, Gazeta do Povo reported. The 1-point gap is also inside the margin of error.
Flávio Bolsonaro belongs to the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and has been president since 2023.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, two candidates who each worry about as many voters can mean price swings until the result is known on Sunday 25 October. The vote decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy and how it deals with Washington.
If you only follow the politics, read this number as a sign of how deeply divided Brazil is. Neither candidate has a camp that fears him much less than the other.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (21 October, 1:06 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$190.7 million in total bets.
Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of a new survey. Kalshi, a second market regulated in the US by the CFTC, is also tracked on our Brazil election odds page.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.2% · Lula 22.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 21 October, 1:20 pm ET (18:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The reports reviewed give conflicting figures for how the fear question stood in earlier Quaest readings, so this report makes no comparison with previous weeks. It is also not known how many voters who fear one side will turn out or vote blank.
A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. The next surveys before Sunday will show whether the race moves.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who do Brazilians fear more in the latest Quaest poll?
44% fear the Bolsonaro family’s return to power and 42% fear Lula’s reelection. The gap is within the 2-point margin of error.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, four days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president.
What is the margin of error?
The Quaest poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. A 2-point gap between the fear numbers is therefore a technical tie.
How many voters did Quaest interview?
Quaest interviewed 2,154 voters in person from 17 to 20 October. The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) under number BR-08535/2026.
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
In the same Quaest survey, Flávio Bolsonaro has 45% and Lula 44%. That gap is also inside the margin of error.
Sources: Gazeta do Povo, 21 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 21 October 2026; Metrópoles, 21 October 2026; TVT News, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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