Azerbaijan’s economic performance in the first nine months of 2026 offers an important perspective on the country’s development priorities for the remainder of the decade. Rising exports, a substantial trade surplus and ambitious targets for non-oil economic growth provide a foundation for examining how Azerbaijan can strengthen its productive capacity and broaden its presence in international markets.
The country recorded $37.21 billion in foreign trade turnover between January and September 2026, according to calculations based on the State Customs Committee. Exports reached $23.865 billion, while imports totalled $13.346 billion, generating a positive trade balance of $10.519 billion. The surplus increased approximately 5.7-fold year on year, reflecting a 28.3% rise in exports and a 20.4% decline in imports.
These figures provide a strong starting point for assessing Azerbaijan’s external economic position. A substantial trade surplus creates additional economic flexibility, supports the accumulation of external resources and strengthens the country’s capacity to finance investment priorities. The next strategic task is to translate these advantages into higher domestic production, stronger private enterprises and a broader range of competitive exports.
Azerbaijan’s medium-term economic projections set an ambitious benchmark. According to the Ministry of Finance figures, GDP is projected to reach 169.1 billion manat, equivalent to approximately $99.5 billion, by 2030. The non-oil and gas sector is expected to account for 82% of GDP, with average annual real GDP growth projected at 3.3% and average annual growth in the non-oil and gas economy forecast at 4.4%.
The projected size of non-oil and gas GDP stands at 138.6 billion manat, or approximately $81.5 billion. Achieving this objective would represent a substantial expansion of the economic base, with manufacturing, agriculture, transport, digital services and other productive activities playing increasingly important roles.
The significance of this target extends beyond the composition of GDP. A larger non-oil economy can create additional employment opportunities, strengthen domestic supply chains, expand the tax base and improve the resilience of economic activity across different market conditions.
The first nine months of 2026 brought a particularly strong increase in Azerbaijan’s overall exports. The country exported goods worth $23.865 billion, while non-oil exports, excluding the specified petroleum product categories, reached $6.652 billion, accounting for 27.87% of total exports.
This distinction is important. Overall export growth demonstrates the strength of Azerbaijan’s external trade performance, while non-oil exports offer a more direct indicator of progress in diversifying the country’s export base.
Agriculture and agro-industrial production provide promising opportunities. During the first half of 2026, non-oil exports excluding non-monetary gold reached $1.8 billion, increasing by 16.9% year on year. Agricultural exports rose by 23.9% to $563.9 million, while agro-industrial exports increased by 35.3% to $195.9 million.
Together, these two categories generated $759.8 million in exports during the first half of the year. Their performance highlights the potential of food processing, packaging, cold-chain logistics, irrigation technologies and internationally recognised quality standards.
Greater processing capacity can help Azerbaijani producers capture more value from domestic agricultural output. Investment in storage, distribution and branding can also strengthen access to regional markets, including Türkiye, Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Europe.
Industrial development offers another route towards the 2030 targets. Non-oil and gas industrial output increased by 5.4% year on year during January–September 2026. Transportation and storage services expanded by 10%, while information and communication services grew by 11.1%, according to the State Statistical Committee figures.
These indicators point to several complementary growth opportunities. Industrial parks can support manufacturing investment, while transport infrastructure can connect producers with domestic and international customers. Digital services can improve operational efficiency, facilitate customs procedures and help businesses reach new markets.
Azerbaijan’s position along the Middle Corridor further strengthens this outlook. Continued investment in railways, ports, roads and logistics centres can support transit activity while generating demand for warehousing, freight forwarding, maintenance, engineering and information technology services.
The economic benefits of connectivity therefore extend across multiple sectors. Efficient transport networks can reduce delivery times, improve supply-chain reliability and make locally produced goods more competitive in export markets.
Azerbaijan’s trade surplus and 2030 economic projections provide a favourable framework for the next stage of development. The central priority is to convert current export momentum into sustainable productive capacity.
Access to finance, investment in technology, workforce development and reliable infrastructure will influence the pace of this transformation. Stronger links between vocational education, universities and private-sector employers can help businesses obtain the engineering, manufacturing and digital skills required by expanding industries.
The private sector also has a central role to play. Domestic companies that invest in productivity, develop export-oriented products and establish long-term commercial relationships can help turn economic growth into broader business opportunities and skilled employment.
Azerbaijan enters the remainder of the decade with a substantial trade surplus, rising exports and a clearly defined diversification target. The combination of industrial development, agricultural modernisation, logistics expansion and digital innovation offers a practical route towards a more diversified economic structure.
The ultimate measure of success will be the capacity of Azerbaijani businesses to produce more, compete across international markets and generate increasing value within the domestic economy. By building on its current trade performance and directing investment towards productive sectors, Azerbaijan can strengthen the foundations of its non-oil economy and advance towards its 2030 ambitions.