BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 12:34 a.m. ET · Source: Brazilian press reports on the order of the electoral court (TSE) president
Key Facts
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Kássio Nunes Marques, president of Brazil’s electoral court (TSE), authorised Lula’s campaign coalition to unlink the “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army) WhatsApp channel from its campaign.
- The limit The order does not decide whether the channel is in fact tied to the campaign, which the court still has to assess.
- The channel It was created by federal deputy André Janones and has nearly 5 million followers.
- The new rules The court added articles 33-E to 33-G to its campaign-propaganda resolution on Friday 16 October, listing when a messaging channel counts as linked to a campaign.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 12:31 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 23% and 22%), as of 17 October, 12:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Reports do not say what the order changes in practice, and neither candidate’s campaign had replied by early Saturday.
Brazil’s electoral court president, Kássio Nunes Marques, authorised President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign coalition on Friday 16 October to unlink a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel from the campaign, Metrópoles reported at 12:20 a.m. ET on Saturday 17 October. The order does not decide whether the channel is actually tied to the campaign, a question the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has yet to answer.
The channel, “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army), was created by federal deputy André Janones of Minas Gerais and has nearly 5 million followers, according to Metrópoles. It is at the centre of a legal fight eight days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro.
What the Order Says
The coalition, called “Brasil Pronto pra Mais” (Brazil Ready for More), groups the Workers’ Party (PT), PCdoB and PV federation with the PSB and PDT parties and the PSOL-Rede federation. Nunes Marques wrote that his decision does not analyse “the existence or non-existence of a link between the channel and the campaign”, according to Metrópoles.
The coalition argues that the channel receives no money, goods or services from the campaign, the coalition or its parties. It says the channel is not an official campaign structure and not a mass-messaging operation.
The New Rules Behind the Request
On Friday 16 October the court approved articles 33-E to 33-G of its propaganda rule, Resolution 23.610 of 2019, on when a messaging channel counts as tied to a campaign. The criteria include, among others, campaign financing, shared structure, promotion on official campaign profiles and coordination of content, and proof of one can be enough, according to Folha de Curitiba.
The coalition says the channel fits the exception for an individual’s spontaneous support, and that Lula’s mention of it in a video on 7 October does not on its own create a link. It also asks the court to drop earlier orders that assumed a link and to take the case to the full court, according to Poder360.
How the Dispute Reached This Point
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign asked the court to act against the channel, alleging disinformation, and Nunes Marques suspended it on Sunday 11 October. The back-and-forth of orders since then is set out in our earlier report on the coalition’s petition.
The court’s technical unit on disinformation reviewed posts from 2 to 11 October and found none repeating the allegations made by Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, according to Diário do Nordeste. The same review pointed to polarising language and signs of coordinated mobilisation, as we reported when it appeared.
What It Means for US Readers
WhatsApp is owned by US company Meta and is where many Brazilians follow the campaign, so a court ruling on who controls a large channel shapes the final week. The new rules also set the test the court will apply to every campaign-linked channel, including those backing Flávio Bolsonaro.
For investors, the point is the court’s role as referee in a race that prediction markets price as lopsided. Each ruling of this kind is a signal of how closely the court will police the last days of the campaign.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 12:31 a.m. ET). Prices of the two outcomes do not always add up to exactly 100%, and about US$185.2 million has been traded on the market, as shown in our Brazil election odds.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.2% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22%
As of 17 October, 12:20 am ET (05:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We have not seen the order itself, only press reports of it, and the reports we reviewed do not say what it changes for the channel’s registration or its operation. The court has not said when it will decide whether the channel is tied to the campaign.
No reply from Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign to the order had been reported by early Saturday. It is also unclear whether the case will go to the full court, as the coalition asks.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the head of Brazil’s electoral court decide about the Lula channel?
On Friday 16 October, Kássio Nunes Marques authorised Lula’s coalition to unlink the “Exército do Lula” WhatsApp channel from its campaign. He did not rule on whether a link exists.
Who runs the “Exército do Lula” channel?
Federal deputy André Janones of Minas Gerais created it. It has nearly 5 million followers, according to Metrópoles.
What new rules decide if a WhatsApp channel is tied to a campaign?
The electoral court added articles 33-E to 33-G to Resolution 23.610 of 2019 on Friday 16 October. A link can come from criteria such as financing, shared structure, promotion on official profiles or coordinated content, and proof of one can be enough.
Did the court find fake news in the channel?
The court’s technical unit reviewed posts from 2 to 11 October and found none repeating the allegations made by Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. It pointed to polarising language and signs of coordinated mobilisation.
When is Brazil’s runoff election?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October in a runoff between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president.
Sources: Metrópoles, 17 October 2026; Folha de Curitiba, October 2026; Poder360, 16 October 2026; Diário do Nordeste, October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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