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Staff Writer
Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is projected to grow more slowly in 2026 as inflation accelerates, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook. The IMF forecasts economic growth of 2.4 per cent this year, down from an estimated 3 per cent in 2025, while average inflation is expected to rise from 1.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent.
The outlook, released on 13 October during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, projects a modest improvement in 2027, with growth reaching 2.5 per cent and inflation easing to 3.1 per cent. The figures point to continued economic expansion, but greater pressure on household purchasing power this year. Even if inflation eases in 2027, prices would continue to rise, albeit more slowly.
The report, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, also projects a widening of Antigua and Barbuda’s current account deficit from 11.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2025 to 12.7 per cent this year, before narrowing to 11.9 per cent in 2027. The current account measures transactions with the rest of the world, including trade in goods and services, income and transfers. It is separate from the government’s budget balance.
Antigua and Barbuda’s projected growth this year matches the IMF’s 2.4 per cent forecast for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. However, its inflation forecast of 3.6 per cent exceeds the currency union’s projected average of 2.8 per cent.
Among neighbouring economies, Grenada is forecast to grow by 3.9 per cent and Dominica by 3.1 per cent in 2026. The IMF projects growth of 2.3 per cent for St Vincent and the Grenadines, 1.8 per cent for St Kitts and Nevis and 1.2 per cent for St Lucia.
The report’s wider assessment describes an uneven international environment, with higher energy costs putting pressure on importing countries, while some commodity exporters and economies benefiting from technology investment receive stronger support.
For Latin America and the Caribbean, the IMF projects growth of 2.3 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent in 2027. It says the impact of the energy shock across the region depends partly on gains for commodity exporters and losses for energy importers. Most countries are receiving little offsetting benefit from the global technology upturn.
Worldwide, economic growth is forecast at 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027. The IMF warns that a prolonged stalemate or further escalation in the Middle East could keep energy and food prices elevated, intensify inflation and weaken economic activity. Further disruptions to energy infrastructure, renewed trade tensions and extreme weather could also worsen the outlook.
In its broader policy recommendations, the Fund favours temporary assistance targeted at vulnerable households when governments respond to rising food and energy costs. A chapter examining cost-of-living crises finds that targeted income support can protect vulnerable households at substantially lower fiscal cost than broad measures designed to suppress prices. Those recommendations form part of the report’s international analysis and are not presented as a specific assessment of Antigua and Barbuda’s policies.