Pakistan’s economic growth for fiscal year 2025-26 has been revised down to 3.65 percent from an earlier estimate of 3.70 percent, while growth slowed to 2 percent in the final quarter, according to updated national accounts approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on October 19.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), in a press release following the committee’s 118th meeting, said the revised estimates incorporated updated import data and changes to annual and quarterly economic indicators. The economy was valued at Rs. 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, in FY26, while per capita income stood at Rs. 531,897, equivalent to $1,896.
The committee also revised economic growth for FY25 to 3.11 percent from the previously estimated 3.18 percent. The NAC revised growth estimates for the first three quarters of FY26 and approved a new estimate for the fourth quarter.
GDP growth for the first quarter was adjusted slightly downward to 3.89 percent from 3.92 percent. Growth in the second quarter was revised upward to 4.31 percent from 4.05 percent, while the third-quarter estimate increased to 4.42 percent from 3.99 percent.
The economy grew 2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 6.07 percent in the corresponding period of FY25. The PBS attributed the modest expansion partly to the high base established a year earlier.
Agriculture grew 3.71 percent in the final quarter, compared with 0.58 percent a year earlier. Services expanded 3.62 percent, down from 4.21 percent. Industry contracted 4.70 percent after recording growth of 20 percent in the same quarter last year.
The industrial contraction was largely associated with a 33.19 percent decline in electricity, gas and water supply, which the PBS linked to lower subsidies, a high deflator and a substantial base effect.
Agriculture growth improves as crop output rises
Agriculture’s annual growth estimate for FY26 was revised upward to 3.50 percent from 2.89 percent. The improvement reflected stronger performance by important crops and other agricultural activities.
Growth in important crops increased to 1.59 percent from an earlier estimate of 0.65 percent, supported by wheat and maize. Other crops recorded growth of 4.28 percent, up from 2.43 percent.
The PBS cited higher production of pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder. Pulses production increased 6.3 percent, fruit output rose 1.3 percent, tomato production climbed 44 percent, oilseed output grew 5.4 percent and green fodder production increased 2.4 percent.
Livestock growth was revised slightly downward to 3.71 percent from 3.75 percent. Forestry expanded 10.80 percent, while fishing grew 1.39 percent during the fiscal year.
For FY25, agriculture growth was revised down to 1.32 percent from 1.53 percent, mainly because of a downward adjustment to forestry.
Industrial growth estimate cut as manufacturing slows
The industrial sector’s FY26 growth estimate was reduced to 3.34 percent from 3.51 percent. Although mining and quarrying performed better than previously estimated, the revision reflected weaker large-scale manufacturing and changes in electricity, gas and water supply.
Mining and quarrying growth was revised upward to 1.52 percent from 0.38 percent, supported by increases in gas production of 2.84 percent, crude oil output of 5.12 percent and coal production of 2.73 percent.
Large-scale manufacturing growth, measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing, was lowered to 5.01 percent from 6.11 percent.
Several manufacturing industries continued to expand. Automobile production grew 57.77 percent, transport equipment increased 42.36 percent, electrical equipment rose 14.25 percent and rubber products grew 14.19 percent. Food manufacturing increased 7.03 percent, petroleum products rose 9.7 percent, tobacco expanded 12.61 percent and furniture production climbed 22.69 percent.
However, pharmaceuticals contracted 8.87 percent, iron and steel products declined 7.84 percent, chemicals fell 2.53 percent and leather products decreased 1.95 percent.
Construction growth was revised upward to 6.30 percent from 5.73 percent, reflecting increased public-sector construction spending.
Services sector growth revised downward
Services sector growth for FY26 was revised to 3.81 percent from 4.09 percent, with the wholesale and retail trade sector accounting for a significant downward adjustment.
Wholesale and retail trade growth fell to 2.37 percent from 3.71 percent, which the PBS attributed to lower manufacturing output and imports. In contrast, transportation and storage growth improved to 3.23 percent from 2.31 percent, following upward revisions in railways, water transport and air transport.
Information and communication growth was revised upward to 9.53 percent from 7.52 percent. Finance and insurance activities also improved, with growth rising to 4.23 percent from 0.32 percent.
Other services remained in positive territory. Public administration and social security grew 5.67 percent, education expanded 4.17 percent, human health and social work increased 5.52 percent, and other private services rose 4.01 percent.
The updated national accounts put Pakistan’s economy at Rs. 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, in FY26, compared with Rs. 114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion, in FY25. Per capita income reached Rs. 531,897, equivalent to $1,896, during FY26.
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