Major League Baseball’s free agent qualifying offer figure has been set for the 2026–27 offseason, but the structure is just the start of what is set to be a highly uncertain player market this fall and winter.
The league set the latest qualifying offer at $23.15 million, with that number derived from an average of the 125 major league contracts. The figure is up by 5.1% from last year and up by 74% since the system began after the 2012 season.
Qualifying offers provide protection to clubs for the potential loss of free agents, and tendering them provides draft pick compensation should a player sign with another club. Historically, players have held little regard for qualifying offers, and just 18 of 157 overall have been accepted. Amid recent salary escalation, though, that trend has begun to reverse, with a record four players accepting qualifying offers last year.
The upcoming offseason presents a rather different scenario because of ongoing labor strife between MLB and the MLB Players Association, and its direct impact on part of the sport that the qualifying offers touch. Team owners have proposed a series of dramatic measures including a hard salary cap, significant restrictions to free agency, and an overhaul of the MLB draft. The union vehemently opposes those offers, particularly the salary cap, and is looking to retain the core of the sport’s market-based economic system.
A management lockout is expected when the current collective bargaining agreement expires in December. Qualifying offer decisions, however, will be made before that, with offers due by the fifth day after the World Series ends, and player decisions a week after that.
As a result, both clubs and pending free agents will be looking at upcoming qualifying offers without knowing for certain what MLB’s overall economic structure or the nature of the draft next year look like.
Top players that could receive qualifying offers include Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena, Yankees closer David Bednar, and Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki.
Historic Parallels
The 2021-22 MLB offseason provides some window as to what may happen over the next several months.
Five years ago, the league and union went through a similar scenario where labor disagreements led to a 99-day management lockout, ultimately resolved in March 2022, preserving a full season that year.
The preceding offseason included a conventional qualifying offer process, and only Giants first baseman Brandon Belt accepted what was an $18.4 million offer at the time.
Several other key offseason events were either canceled or postponed due to the lockout, including the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft and salary arbitration proceedings.
The same thing would happen this time around. MLB recently detailed in a memo to club owners that essentially all player-related activity would stop as soon as a lockout begins, including a halt on player trades, signings, and contract negotiations. Additionally, all player images and videos would be removed from official league outlets such as the MLB website, and any contact between team staffers and players, even socially, would be severely restricted. Those practices duplicate what happened during the prior lockout.
The similarity to a half decade ago, however, begins to fade when considering the scope of management’s current labor proposals—which could radically restructure the state of the game—and the state of the bargaining divide. Both sides have held out some hope of a deal ultimately being struck, but doing so would require sizable movement from the current negotiating positions.
One potential element of labor agreement lies around the qualifying offer in future years. The union wants to eliminate the system altogether, arguing that it acts as a drag on free agency options as signing teams must currently pay draft-pick compensation. Owners have said they will agree to that, but only in the context of a salary cap and other severe restrictions to free agency that players oppose.
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