The Orioles Must Commit To Coby Mayo For 2027

The Orioles must commit to a path for 500 plate appearances for Coby Mayo next season.

They are literally running out of alleged “core guys” from the first wave of their never-ending rebuild under baseball failure Mike Elias, and Mayo, part of a truncated Covid draft of 202, is one of their few potential diamonds. Their first pick in Elias’s first draft, Adley Rutschman, is long gone as would always be the case with two years of team control, and his second draft selection, Gunnar Henderson, the only thing left from 2019, is the next to go (hopefully for this CF in return).

Elias’s first pick in 2020, Heston Kjerstad (second-overall), has no future here and will be 28 in spring training, Jordan Westburg from that draft class is never healthy, and the first picks in 2021 and 2022 (Colton Cowser at fifth overall and Jackson Holliday as the top pick in the draft) could be on expiring time here. Mayo certainly has his faults, and the lack of a defined position is problematic but a franchise notorious for botching player development must find a way to usher Mayo through 2027 with a runway worthy of his prodigious power.

He knows how wishy-washy their support of him has been to this point and how quick Elias was to see if Christian Encarnacion-Strand could unseat Mayo at third. Could he add right field to his profile this offseason to increase his utility worth? Would Elias actually do the right thing and ship out Tyler O’Neill, eating major salary to do so, to create more room for Mayo’s right-handed bat and would he move Pete Alonso to more DH, too?

These conversations need to be taking place and The Warehouse needs to adopt a plan with Mayo a likely fifth/sixth option in the lineup and someone who is given an opportunity to face right-handed starters save for the truly nasty ace variety. There has to be checklist of priorities to keep from falling prey to rampant platooning and Mayo and Samuel Basallo, who also has a challenging defensive profile, need to be atop it.

Here’s why I am hopeful that Mayo can be an everyday bat (if Elias is willing to work to get him PAs across various spots).

He Made Strides vs RHP

Mayo posted a .436 SLG from July 1, on, against right-handed pitching. Despite the team not letting him see righties as much as they should have. That was fourth on the team in that span and almost identical to CES.  Now, CES doesn’t walk at all against righties and Mayo fared much better in that regard, but Mayo’s 29% K rate against righties is less than ideal.

But there were more than enough strides made and if Mayo can stay in the .720 OPS range against righties and continues to smash lefties more than anyone in baseball, that is a profile that shouldn’t be scrounging for at bats.

Power vs Lefties Is Extreme

Mayo got attention for leading MLB in lefty-smashing, but the distance he put between himself and everyone else in MLB did not. Dude had a 207 OPS+ vs lefties ; Spencer Steer was second at 188. Mayo slugged .712 off lefties; Randal Grichuk was second at .655. That ain’t close, folks. An 1.105 OPS is nuts.

But what also didn’t get talked about enough was the .322 batting average vs lefties that powered the on base profile. That’s a tremendous amount of contract and if Mayo could hone his swing decisions a little bit against southpaws and lower the K-rate (from say 25% to 20%) there is room for even more damage.

Mayo was in the 84th percentile in exit velo and 91st in barrel rate and 89th in bat speed and he’s always mashed offspeed pitches and he slugged .586 off fastballs last season and that’s a pitch he always handled in the minors. I’m buying it.

Expand The Profile?

Mayo has a cannon and he has worked on his accuracy and he is a sneaky good base runner and is in the 61st percentile in sprint speed so he’s not a plodder. Can we get him into the right field mix some? You think about what Elias has been willing to stomach in the outfield and the outright butchers he continues to employ who can’t impact the baseball like Mayo does – Dwight Smith Jr. to DJ Stewart to Heston Kjerstad to Rece Hinds – this should be something that gets a good look in Sarasota (assuming a quasi-normal spring training).

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