Where the teals at? Independents face a tough battle in Victoria — but don’t count them out

It felt like independents were unstoppable in Australian politics four years ago. Macquarie Dictionary even named “teal” as its word of the year in 2022. But with just over a month until the Victorian election, where have they all gone?

At the last state election, Climate 200 endorsed candidates in four seats: Caulfield, Hawthorn, Kew and Mornington. None won, and only one made the two-candidate-preferred count. This year, the group is backing independents in all of those seats bar Caulfield, adding Footscray to its campaign fund instead.

In Kew, Sophie Torney is running again to try and oust Victorian Liberals leader Jess Wilson. Despite the seat being marginal for the Liberals, this will require a monumental task given Wilson’s larger profile as opposition leader and increased personal popularity in several polls. Torney’s profile, however, has also risen through her election as a Boroondara councillor in 2024 and subsequent appointment as the council’s mayor for a term.

Climate 200 has recently paid for several Meta ads in Kew and Hawthorn (held by ex-Liberal leader John Pesutto) with messaging that is questionable at best, including that “Jess Wilson wants you to vote Labor” or that “Voting Labor could help elect One Nation”. It will be tough for independents to win either of these seats, but they may overtake Labor for second place.

Mornington was the closest race for an independent in 2022, with Kate Lardner receiving 49.3% of the two-candidate-preferred count vote against the Liberals. The teal-style group that Lardner co-founded, Voices of Mornington Peninsula, has since disbanded, but a new group, Independents for Mornington Peninsula, is backing Melissa Goffin to defeat Liberal MP Chris Crewther. Mornington seems like fertile ground for an independent MP, but starting from scratch with a new candidate — combined with the expected swing towards the Liberals — means it will be another tough race.

Footscray, the fourth Climate 200-involved race, is being described by people on the ground as nearly impossible to predict. Currently held by Labor, the seat has Jess Marsh running as an independent, who will have to compete with the Liberals, Greens, One Nation and Victorian Socialists for a notable vote share.

For the independents without Climate 200 backing, several notable candidates could receive notable primary vote results. Merri-bek councillor Oscar Yildiz had 41.4% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in Pascoe Vale at the 2018 state election, but has this year decided to run for Labor-held Essendon. Yildiz could have a broader appeal to swing voters than the Liberals or One Nation, but will also be competing with Moonee Valley councillor Ava Adams, who is also running as an independent with teal-style branding.

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Independent candidates David Vanderwolf, Prue Cutts and Tony Briffa are also running in Croydon, Ringwood and Williamstown, respectively, all with similar messaging about being “community-focused” and “not working for a political party”. But it is difficult to see them cutting through for significant vote shares. Ian Cook, who ran against then-premier Dan Andrews in 2022 and again in a 2023 by-election when Andrews resigned, recently announced he would try for a third time to win Mulgrave as an independent after failing to register his “Fair Go Party”, though this race seems like it could revert to a traditional Labor vs Liberal contest.

Outside of Melbourne, the situation for independents in 2022 was even more dire. Incumbents Ali Cupper (Mildura) and Suzanna Sheed (Shepparton) lost their seats to the Nationals, the latter with a significant swing against her. Cupper was elected to Mildura Rural City Council in 2024, became mayor late last year, and is now running to win back her old seat. The Nationals’ Jade Benham only holds the seat by 1.2%, yet the contest becomes more complicated when One Nation — which will perform well in regional seats like Mildura — is thrown into the mix.

In perhaps the most unpredictable election in recent Victorian (or Australian) history, an independent upset in several seats should never be ruled out. But with a record One Nation vote and the Greens rising in the polls, it will take a monumental effort for an independent — teal or not — to capture the anti-establishment sentiment and emerge victorious next month.