Bitcoin in 'Wait and See Mode'—And That Might Be a Good Thing

Bitcoin hasn't budged more than 6% over the past month, per Decrypt data, and is currently sitting at around $81,735, down 1.2% on the day. One expert says the leading cryptocurrency is in "wait and see mode," and claims that might be a good thing.

The crypto market as a whole has been quiet lately. Every top five cryptocurrency has failed to move more than 2% over the past week. And the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at a neutral score of 47. It's all quite… boring.

But market analysts say that a dull market might actually portend a bull market, and that there are still opportunities out there.

A quiet market is "usually a good sign, and one reason is that it doesn't last," Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks, told Decrypt. "In the past, similar low-volatility stretches have led to 30% price swings in either direction within a few months."

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, called the quiet period a "constructive sign." That's because "long stretches of uneventful trading punctuated by a handful of outsized moves" is a typical early sign of a bull market.

The drawdowns in Bitcoin's current recovery have also been less damaging than in previous cycles, Dragosch said. That's all while oil, semiconductor stocks, and government bonds are experiencing "elevated" volatility, he added. 

"That tells us investors are increasingly willing to absorb weakness and maintain exposure," Dragosch told Decrypt, calling it "resilience rather than euphoria."

Conversely, Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at crypto trading firm GSR, told Decrypt that a boring market isn't either a good or a bad sign. Rather, he said, the market is standing still due to a "risk-off" sentiment taking over global markets.

"This has been mostly due to factors outside of crypto, with a complex macro situation and fears around AI stocks taking center stage," Guzman said. "We're unlikely to see a significant market breakout while broader risk-off sentiment prevails, so markets continue to be choppy."

'Wait and see mode'

Dragosch told Decrypt that Bitcoin is in "wait and see mode," with markets stuck between tightening global financial conditions and an expectation that slowing growth will eventually force central banks to change course.

Mostly, what Bitcoin is waiting for is the Federal Reserve. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and CPI then rose 0.6% for September. The Fed's next rate decision is on October 28, "and until then nobody wants to make a big bet," Koch-Gallup said.

Bitcoin is hovering around what Dragosch calls "the market's economic midpoint," the level where roughly half of all invested capital is in profit and half is at a loss. That means "neither buyers nor sellers currently have much incentive to move the market away from this level," he said. 

That doesn't mean nobody is buying. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 last week but "quickly found buyers," Guzman said, and BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $665.20 million on Monday, according to CoinGlass data.

"The problem is that buying hasn't been consistent enough to drive a sustained rally," Guzman said.

The next move

Koch-Gallup said three catalysts are coming in the next two weeks: the Fed decision on October 28, an options expiry on October 30 of $11.69 billion worth of Bitcoin, and the U.S. midterms on November 3. These events could dictate the crypto market's next major move.

"If the Fed keeps rates the same and ETF inflows keep coming, I'd expect the break to be upward," Koch-Gallup said. "If the Fed hikes again, the $75,000 to $77,000 floor comes back into play."

Plus, Guzman added that a resolution to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could also act as a catalyst for markets.

Dragosch said derivatives markets are pricing in far less volatility than on-chain data suggests, which means options are "unusually cheap right now, both for hedging and for positioning for a larger move in either direction."

"For me, a boring market is the time to buy high-quality protocols before a bull market makes them overvalued," Koch-Gallup told Decrypt. "I'm focused on revenue-generating businesses with strong tokenholder claims."

While Bitcoin and other major tokens have traded sideways, smaller coins have made moves. 

Brave browser token BAT has climbed almost 87% to a $263 million market cap over the past month, according to Decrypt data, while card collection marketplace Collector Crypt has jumped 95% to $318 million.

"A boring market means you have to work harder to find the opportunities, not that they aren't there," Koch-Gallup said.