When the 2026 Major League Baseball season officially comes to an end, the next big thing to watch is going to be what happens with two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
Skubal is the biggest free agent prize of the year, without a doubt. He follows in the footsteps of guys like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, who were the biggest free agents of the year over the last three years. This year, it's time for Skubal to cash in.
Beyond Skubal, the biggest free agents of the offseason are Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Robbie Ray, Shota Imanaga and potentially Bo Bichette. Bichette has an opt-out in his deal with the New York Mets. It's going to be a fun few months across the league. Let's try our hand at projecting what it could cost to sign these top names.
Tarik Skubal — Starting Pitcher
Skubal's stint in free agency is going to be fascinating. On one hand, you have the hurler who has been the most dominant starter in baseball over the last three years, at least. On the other hand, Skubal is heading to free agency at 29 years old and after undergoing elbow surgery earlier in the season.
Skubal is the best player heading to the open market and he will get paid well. He even could get paid historically well. ESPN's Jeff Passan shared in a column that if there is no salary cap, he could double the $245 million deal Stephen Strasburg got from the Washington Nationals, at most. Arguably, that is far too high. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the largest contract for a starter in big league history at $325 million over 12 years, but he got that at 25 years old. Gerrit Cole is a closer equivalent. He got his nine-year, $324 million deal at 29 years old. Skubal should come in much closer to that from a years perspective. But could very well top Yamamoto's overall value.
Projection: 8-years, $335 million ($41.8 AAV).
Randy Arozarena — Outfielder
Arozarena is a three-time All-Star, including each of the last two years, and is coming off a 5.7 WAR season. He picked a good time to have one of the best seasons of his career. Arozarena is the best non-Bichette bat heading to the open market, which should do wonders for his value.
Projection: 5-years, $120 million
Seiya Suzuki — Outfielder
Suzuki is the second-best non-Bichette offensive player heading to the open market. He's coming off a season in which he hit 26 home runs, drove in 86 runs and logged 31 doubles in 143 games played. He'll be 32 years old when the 2027 season begins. He should do quite well this winter.
Projection: 4-years, $90 million
Robbie Ray — Starting Pitcher
Ray may be 35 years old, but he can still get it down. He had a 3.59 ERA in 31 total appearances in 2026, including 30 starts, with the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres. He was an All-Star in 2025. Ray won't turn 36 years old until October, 2027. He should get one more multi-year deal this offseason.
Projection: 3-years, $55 million
Shota Imanaga — Starting Pitcher
Imanaga is just 33 years old and hasn't had more than a 3.77 season ERA in his three-year big league career. He's younger than Ray and has been arguably better over the last three seasons. He should do even better in free agency.
Projection: 3-years, $64 million
Bo Bichette — Infielder
Bichette is going to be among the most intriguing players to follow over the next few weeks. Skubal is clearly the best free agent heading to the open market. If Bichette opts out, he'll be the second-best. Bichette is owed $42 million from the Mets, if he sticks around in 2027. Then, he has a $42 million player option for 2028.
It's hard to believe, but Bichette is still just 28 years old. If he were to enter the open market again, there should be a massive deal with his name on it.
Projection: 6-Years, $200 million
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