When James Talarico, the 37-year-old Texas representative and Presbyterian seminarian, won the Democratic Party’s Senate nomination seven months ago, few believed he would win the general election in November. For one thing, Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in nearly 30 years. There was also little to suggest that Talarico’s progressive Christian beliefs championing working-class folks against mega-billionaires and corrupt corporations would make a dent in Texas, a MAGA stronghold with 88 billionaires, including Elon Musk, and more Fortune 500 company headquarters than any other state.
And, importantly, there was one more factor, internal to Democratic politics, that rendered Talarico a long shot: He didn’t have the Black vote.
Black Democratic voters overwhelmingly supported Talarico’s opponent in the Democratic primary in March, Representative Jasmine Crockett, nationally known for her vivid rhetoric and punchy comebacks on Capitol Hill. A popular figure in her Dallas district, Crockett enjoyed the support of Black political and religious leaders and rank-and-file voters. She received approximately 61 percent of the Black vote in the primary. Perhaps not surprisingly, hard feelings cropped up between the two camps during and after the campaign.
At a post-primary town hall when Talarico backers raged against Crockett, the nominee took up her defense. “I felt, just at a personal level, offended,” he told TheGrio, a website focusing on African Americans. “If we were really serious about winning this race,” he said, “if people who claim to be my supporters or who claim to be part of this movement we’re building, if they’re sincere in their support, then they should be trying to heal divisions, not deepen divisions.”
Crockett endorsed him after her loss but has not campaigned with him, turning her attention to candidates in downballot races. But one of the state’s Black leaders, Rodney Ellis, a Harris County commissioner and former state senator from Houston, was among the first to speak out for Talarico. “I was for Jasmine Crockett in the primary,” he said on a video. “But there is too much at stake in this race to be petty. I like Talarico’s message. It’s grounded in faith.… I think he’s going to have a tremendous amount of support in the African American community.”
Talarico has since been moving on several fronts to win Black support. His campaign engaged Black political operatives and Black communications firms. It laid out the largest Black voter outreach plan of its kind in modern Texas history, and gave priority to Black media, podcasts, radio, television, newspapers, and other outlets.
Talarico may have one more huge factor in his favor. His name is Ken Paxton. The state’s scandal-scarred attorney general has plenty of PAC money and dark money. The New York Times reported on October 16 that Elon Musk alone has given Paxton $158 million. Overall, outside Republican groups have poured around $250 million into backing Paxton, which is more than five times what Democratic groups have given Talarico. Talarico has raised more than $130 million so far, which is far more than Paxton, but Paxton’s dark money gives him an overall advantage.
In mid-September, a Texas Southern University survey showed Black voters backing Talarico 87 percent to 10 percent. Around that time, Talarico won the crucial endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus’s political wing, a powerhouse in Congress.
Recently, Cal Jillian, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told me that the Black vote in Texas usually runs 80 percent to 85 percent in favor of most Democratic candidates, but to win the U.S. Senate seat, Talarico needs no less than 90 percent.
Is that anywhere near possible?
From the start, “there were questions about the Talarico campaign and whether Black voters would be there for him,” Kardal Coleman, the chair of the Dallas County Democratic Party, told me.
The friction between the two camps broke out in the final stretch of the Crockett-Talarico primary race when a social media post claimed that in a private conversation in January, Talarico referred to the former Congressman Colin Allred as “a mediocre Black man,” according to The Texas Tribune. Allred lost the Senate race against Senator Ted Cruz in 2024, and he was Talarico’s early rival in 2025 until Crockett declared her candidacy for the Senate. (Allred now is running for the congressional seat in the Dallas-area 33rd congressional district.)
In response, Talarico said it was a “mischaracterization of a private conversation,” the Tribune reported. He said he had described Allred’s “method of campaigning” as “mediocre,” not Allred himself. But the damage was done.
The rancor lingered through the primary and through the early months of Talarico’s campaign against Paxton. The campaign intensified the drive to win over Blacks. Talarico engaged with pastors and congregations in numerous Black churches, notably Friendship-West Baptist Church in Dallas, which has 13,000 congregants, including Crockett, and is led by a prominent pastor, the Reverend Dr. Frederick D. Haynes III, now running for Congress in the 30th district-seat Crockett vacated to seek the Senate seat. Talarico dropped by Black restaurants like Smokey Joe’s in south Dallas and Mikki’s Soul Food in Houston. He toured HBCU campuses, attending the Prairie View A&M game against Grambling State University, where he received a standing ovation. And back in May, he had a highly publicized lunch with President Barack Obama at Taco Joint in Austin.
Along the way, he launched a $25 million project to build Black voter turnout across Texas, addressed the maternal mortality crisis affecting Black women, released statewide digital and radio ads, and built a multimillion-dollar campaign chest mostly with state and out-of-state donations. He became something of a celebrity, showing up on national TV and creating a stir when his scheduled interview on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert was banned by CBS attorneys citing equal-time Federal Communications Commission rules. Colbert then posted the full segment on his YouTube Channel, and it went viral with millions of viewers.
“Talarico is fortunate in his opponent,” professor Jillian said during our conversation.
Paxton, 63, who has refused to debate Talarico, has been a target of numerous federal and local investigations and was impeached in 2022 by the Republican-led state House and acquitted by the state Senate. His wife, Angela Paxton, 63, a Republican state senator, has filed for divorce “on biblical grounds,” meaning adultery. Such imbroglios, accusations of abuses of power, allegations of corruption—and several recently leaked audio recordings of Paxton that damaged mostly himself—have come to define him and his campaign, and Trump’s three rallies in Texas haven’t helped. (Trump is so unpopular, even in Texas, that Governor Greg Abbott, in an unexpectedly close race with State Representative Gina Hinojosa, didn’t show up for the president’s San Antonio rally.)
Paxton doesn’t actively court the Black vote, though more Blacks live in Texas, 4.5 million, than in any other state, making up approximately 13 percent of the state’s population of 32 million.
“Republicans are openly hostile to Blacks,” said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic political action committee and strategic communications organization based in Texas. “You can see it in the way they have redrawn districts to eliminate the Black vote.”
Angle met Talarico in 2017, when Talarico was 29 years old. “Young-looking, earnest, talented, an extraordinary talent,” Angle recalled. “He’s good with the Black community. He goes to Black churches, takes tough questions, takes criticism, and listens.”
In his appearances, Talarico speaks often of his faith, cites Bible passages of compassion and humility, and takes issue with the racist, white Christian nationalism of many in the Republican right wing.
No dirty trick seems too low for Paxton. When Talarico left the campaign trail for nine days in late September to stay home in Austin with the flu, Paxton supporters peddled a rumor on the internet that Talarico had been taken to a mental health facility in Ohio for tests. Paxton gleefully egged them on, and the post went viral. Finally, the health facility responded: James Talarico was not then nor had ever been at that facility. Talarico reappeared in public on October 9, at a Kacey Musgraves concert in Austin and was swamped with fans.
“Talarico’s campaign is finally in stride,” Kardal Coleman said. “To his credit, he has shown up to answer questions everywhere, and he goes on Black media and has shown himself to be an advocate of Blacks here in Texas. His message is resonating, meeting people where they are.… His campaign has finally caught fire. He will likely get 90 percent of the Black vote.”
It’s an opinion I heard from another Black leader, State Representative Rhetta Bowers, who called Talarico her state House classmate because they joined the legislature at the same time, in 2018.
“I’ve seen numbers recently that reach 90 percent,” she said. “Talarico’s Christian message helps with Blacks. It speaks volumes for him. It resonates with Black people.”
Senator Royce West, who has served in the state legislature more than 30 years, sees strong signals from the Black community for a high turnout. “Talarico is doing all the necessary things to get the Black vote. But Trump is doing an even better job turning the Black vote to Talarico, with all Trump has done in this Second Reconstruction period. People are fed up with what’s going on in D.C., and the economy and gas prices, the affordability issue, the central issues.”
West, too, supported Crockett in the primary. “Many of us thought Jasmine was going to be the candidate,” he said. “There were some hard feelings, but Talarico is better than Paxton. Paxton’s record weighs him down. Also, there’s something else. Talarico may have coattails and help downballot races and Gina Hinojosa in her campaign for governor.”
That Talarico could pull off a historic Democratic victory doesn’t surprise Matt Angle. “He may not be the male Texas stereotype, tough-talking macho, but he’s the tough guy in the race,” Angle said. “Two things about him appeal to Blacks. One is his Christian faith, and the other is that he was brought up by a hardworking single mother.”
Chairman Coleman was optimistic but cautious. “I want to stress how important this race is for Texas, this being once in a generation. But this time I think the Democrats are in the driver’s seat. We’ve got great candidate selection. A perfect storm.”
A perfect storm is what it’s going to take for a Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas. And that storm will have to include Talarico hitting that 90 percent mark among Black voters.