US foreign policy is playing an outsized role in this year's midterm elections, thanks largely to President Donald Trump's war against Iran and its effect on the cost of living for Americans.
Republicans control both chambers of Congress, and Democrats are trying to win back some power on November 3, having spent two years in the political wilderness after a disastrous performance during the 2024 presidential election.
A Democratic victory in either chamber would give the opposition greater powers to oppose Mr Trump's agenda, and the ability to launch investigations and call witnesses to testify about action the administration has taken.
Recent polling gives the Democrats a more-than 85 per cent chance of winning the House, where they only need to flip a handful of seats.
The Senate is a trickier task for Democrats, who need to gain four seats to secure a majority, including at least two in states Mr Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
Front and centre of many political debates in the US is the cost of living, particularly petrol prices, which have risen by nearly 50 per cent since Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched their war against Iran on February 28.
Diesel, the lifeblood of the trucking industry, has been even harder hit, having risen by about two thirds. Costs for farmers, truckers and businesses have soared, with high prices being passed on to consumers in many instances.
"The Republican Party and candidates are being killed by the higher prices," Kristin Diwan a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told The National. "To the extent that people blame them on the Iran war, that is also a liability. The war is extremely unpopular and that crosses party lines."
Mr Trump has sought to lower prices by allowing Russia to export diesel, something many Americans are queasy about.
A survey published this month by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that 86 per cent of Americans believed the Iran war had harmed the cost of living, while 68 per cent said it had not been worth fighting.
Dina Smeltz, managing director and chairwoman of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, said the administration's policies had made the connection between international affairs and household finances more apparent.
“By disrupting some of the stability in traditional US foreign policy stances, the Trump administration’s policies seem to have sharpened how Americans link US actions abroad and their daily lives,” she said.
The survey also found that 72 per cent believed the conflict had damaged America's relations with its allies.
Andrew Payne, research director for Europe, Russia and the Americas at Chatham House, said the elections are an unusual moment when international affairs could influence domestic political outcomes.
"Foreign policy rarely decides US elections," he wrote in an analysis published on October 15. "But this year, the economy is foreign policy."
Polls this month show Mr Trump's approval ratings hitting new lows, with Americans particularly unhappy about the economy and cost of living.
An AP-Norc survey shows that 65 per cent of US adults say higher-than-usual prices are the result of Mr Trump’s policies. This is compared to October 2022, under predecessor Joe Biden, when 44 per cent of the public said higher prices were due to presidential policies.
And a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday found Mr Trump's approval rating at a record low of 31 per cent.
"Even though foreign policy may not dominate any given race, it is likely to matter at the margins. And in a tight race, that could make all the difference," Mr Payne said.
Many Republican candidates are facing uphill battles as they try to distance themselves from some of Mr Trump's policies. He campaigned on a pledge to avoid foreign military entanglements and to lower the cost of living. Instead, he started a new war and inflation has risen more than expected since he took office.
How would Democrats handle Iran war?
When Mr Trump announced military operations against Iran, he did so without first securing congressional authorisation, leading to a debate about the limits of presidential war powers. Thanks to four Republican representatives voting alongside the Democrats, the House has already voted to constrain Mr Trump's war powers, although the Senate did not follow suit.
A Democratic majority in either or both chambers would probably increase friction with the White House over the Iran conflict, which Mr Trump has said will end one way or another immediately after the midterms.
If they win, the Democrats are expected to hold a host of hearings, including on the true financial cost of the war and whether the US military was prepared for a new war in the Middle East. Democrats will use those hearings to try to seize an early narrative as voters start looking towards the 2028 presidential election.
A Democratic majority in Congress could have broader foreign implications, too. US military assistance to Israel, sanctions and Washington's relationships with governments across the Gulf could all become subjects of deeper congressional scrutiny.
The war in Ukraine could also become an issue for Republicans in the midterms, particularly since Mr Trump has waived sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports. The move has been condemned by Republicans and Democrats and a recent YouGov poll of more than 5,500 US adults opposed the agreement.
Governments across the Middle East will be wondering about the extent to which Democrats will constrain Mr Trump, and whether the election will fundamentally shift US foreign policy, or just make it harder for the President to get things done.
"The Democratic Party has shown more scepticism about favourable deals with Saudi Arabia. This will make legislation such as the nuclear agreement [with Riyadh] more difficult to pass through Congress, although probably not beyond Trump's veto power," Ms Diwan said.
Still, she noted that Mr Trump is not inclined to defer to Congress, even when he is legally obliged to do so.
"I don’t think the defeat in the election will constrain him," she said.