Raffy Tulfo, Padilla, Alan Cayetano, Vico Sotto top OCTA 2028 senatorial survey

STATISTICAL TIE

Senators Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Pasig Mayor Vico Sotto were statistically tied at the top of a non-commissioned survey conducted by OCTA Research on preferred senatorial candidates for the 2028 elections.

In Q3 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026, Tulfo registered the highest voting preference at 47%, followed by Padilla at 45%, Cayetano at 44%, and Sotto at 42%.

OCTA Research said the four share a rank range of first to fourth, "indicating that their relative order cannot be treated as statistically fixed."

They were followed by former senator Grace Poe and Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte with 36% voting preference each, ranking fifth to sixth, while Senator Loren Legarda registered 31%.

Others in the top were:

• former Makati mayor Abby Binay, 29%,
• Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority chief operating officer Mark Lapid, 28%,
• Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero, 27%,
• Education Secretary Sonny Angara, 25%,
• National Anti-Poverty Commission Secretary Manny Pacquiao, 25%,
• Journalist Ben Tulfo, 23%, and
• Senator Jinggoy Estrada, 22%.

OCTA noted that their overlapping rank ranges reflected that they were “competitive” for positions within the preliminary top 12 of the hypothetical 2028 senatorial preference list.

Former senator Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III and former chief presidential legal counsel Salvador Panelo, who both registered 20%, as well as Senator Mark Villar (19%), and former senator Gringo Honasan and labor Secretary Francis Tolentino (both 18%), also remained “within the broad statistical range covering the last available slots,” according to OCTA.

OCTA said 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above were interviewed nationwide for the survey which employed probability-based sampling. The survey has a ±3 percentage-point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

Respondents were presented with a hypothetical list of prospective candidates and were asked the question: "I have here a list of names that may run in the May 2028 elections. If the May 2028 elections will be held today, who will you likely vote for as SENATOR? You may choose up to 12 names."

The poll firm said some individuals initially considered for inclusion in the survey were removed from the list at their request. It added that in presenting the results, names receiving less than 1% were also excluded from the published list.

It further said the exclusions should be considered when interpreting the distribution of preferences and do not imply that the published names constitute the complete or final field of potential candidates.

OCTA also stressed that the findings should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 senatorial election.

"They provide only a snapshot of voter preferences during the September 28 to October 4, 2026 fieldwork period. Preferences may change substantially as political alignments, candidacies, campaign conditions, public issues, and voter information evolve. Rank ranges are reported because candidates with close percentages may be statistically tied within the survey’s margin of error," it said. —AOL, GMA News