BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre pulled the public security amendment from the floor agenda and gave no new date.
- The amendment PEC 18/2025 expands police cooperation against organised crime and needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two rounds.
- The dispute Senators filed five floor amendments, and two would lower the age of criminal responsibility, now 18, to 16 for some crimes.
- Why it matters The text targets factions such as the PCC and Comando Vermelho, which Washington named terrorist organisations earlier this year.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:52 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 16 October, 2:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s Senate delayed its vote on a major public security amendment on Thursday 15 October, ten days before the presidential runoff. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre pulled the text from the floor agenda and gave no new date, Agência Senado reported.
The security amendment, known as PEC 18/2025, would rewrite how police fight organised crime, including gangs that Washington lists as terrorist groups. It matters to US readers because crime policy is a major theme of the 25 October runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Why Alcolumbre Pulled the Vote
Davi Alcolumbre, who presides over the Senate for the centre-right União Brasil party, said the text should not be rushed. He told the chamber his decision was to take it off the agenda for the day, Agência Senado, the Senate’s own news service, reported.
He said any change to the security amendment would send it back to the Chamber of Deputies, which has already approved it. Afterwards he told reporters that everyone wants something different, so the result pleases nobody, Poder360 reported.
The vote was set for Thursday after the Senate approved a special calendar, a fast track that shortens waiting periods. The Senate’s justice committee had finished its review on Wednesday 14 October, Agência Senado reported.
What the Five Floor Amendments Say
Senators filed five floor amendments to the security amendment, numbered 84 to 88, according to Agência Senado. Two of them would lower the age of criminal responsibility, which is now 18.
Amendment 84 comes from Rogério Marinho, the opposition leader in the Senate and a senator of the conservative Liberal Party. It sets 16 as the general age and 14 for heinous crimes, torture, drug trafficking, terrorism and gang membership.
Amendment 87 comes from Camilo Santana, who leads the left-wing Workers’ Party in the Senate and helps run Lula’s campaign. It keeps 18 as the rule but lowers the age to 16 for heinous crimes.
Amendment 85, from Liberal Party leader Carlos Portinho, deals with the armed forces’ role in public security. Amendments 86 and 88, from Eduardo Gomes of the same party, cover traffic officers and staff of the juvenile justice system.
Who Blames Whom for the Delay
Marinho said Alcolumbre acted to spare Lula’s party an embarrassing debate on the criminal age. He claimed Lula asked for the move and predicted no vote before the 25 October runoff, Poder360 reported.
Santana denied it, saying the government made no request to Alcolumbre to hold the text back. He said the government wanted a vote on Thursday and expects one next week, Poder360 reported.
Teresa Leitão, the government’s leader in the Senate, had agreed with Alcolumbre to vote the text without the age question. She called the opposition’s amendment a delaying tactic and said the government would not give in to blackmail, Poder360 reported.
Senator Jaques Wagner, a Lula ally, said a vote could come next week if the age question moves to a separate proposal, Exame reported. Portinho rejected that idea, and Exame wrote that the likeliest timing is a vote after the runoff.
What the Security Amendment Would Change
The security amendment, PEC 18/2025, expands cooperation among federal, state and city police and targets factions and militias, Agência Senado and Poder360 reported. PEC stands for proposta de emenda à Constituição, a proposal to change Brazil’s constitution.
Lula’s government backs the security amendment, and the Chamber of Deputies has already approved it. Santana says it is needed to create a national Ministry of Public Security with the power to coordinate the states, Poder360 reported.
The full explainer lists each provision of the text. The voting steps show what stood between the amendment and the constitution.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:52 a.m. ET). Lula stands at 20.5%, and Flávio’s price fell 3.7 points over the previous 24 hours.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.2 million in total bets. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on court or Senate news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 2:00 am ET (07:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks or the real, the delay leaves one of the runoff’s policy questions open until after the vote. Both camps are using crime policy in the final stretch, and the criminal-age split has reached Lula’s own camp.
If you follow US policy, the security amendment targets factions like the PCC and Comando Vermelho, which Washington named global terrorists in May. The foreign-terrorist listing took effect on 5 June, Correio da Manhã reported.
For travellers and business visitors, nothing changes on the ground yet, because the text is still waiting for its first Senate vote. Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, and the amendment’s timetable does not alter that date; the runoff poll tracker shows the race.
What Is Not Known
Alcolumbre has set no new date for the vote. Marinho expects no vote before the 25 October runoff, while Santana expects one next week.
It is open whether the Senate will vote on the criminal-age amendments or split that question into a separate proposal. No vote counts exist yet for either age amendment, because neither has reached a floor vote.
Marinho’s claim that Lula asked for the delay is an accusation from an opponent, and Santana denies it. Whether the security amendment passes in this form before the runoff, after it, or not at all is not settled.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Brazil’s public security amendment?
PEC 18/2025 is a proposed change to Brazil’s constitution that expands cooperation among federal, state and city police. It also adds measures against criminal factions and militias.
Why did the Senate delay the vote?
Senate President Davi Alcolumbre pulled it from the Thursday 15 October agenda to give senators time to agree on amendments. Some amendments would lower the age of criminal responsibility, and any change would send the text back to the Chamber of Deputies.
When will the Senate vote on it?
No new date has been set. Opposition leader Rogério Marinho expects no vote before the 25 October runoff, while Camilo Santana expects one next week.
How many votes does the amendment need?
A constitutional amendment needs at least 49 of the 81 senators in each of two rounds. If the Senate changes the substance, the Chamber of Deputies must vote again.
Does the delay change the 25 October runoff?
The vote date does not change the runoff on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Crime policy is a major theme of the race, and both camps have used it in the final stretch.
Sources: Agência Senado, 15 October 2026; Agência Senado (special calendar), 15 October 2026; Poder360 (Alcolumbre pulls the amendment), 15 October 2026; Poder360 (Marinho), 15 October 2026; Poder360 (Santana), 15 October 2026; Exame, 15 October 2026; Correio da Manhã, 28 May 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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