President Donald Trump took a shifting tone on the midterms on Wednesday, pointing out that even if Republicans lose control of the House, Senate, or both, he would remain the U.S. commander-in-chief.
“I’m here whether we win this or not,” he told reporters in Arizona and Montana.
The shift in tone came just two days after he urged supporters in Alaska to “pretend” it was him on the ballot, a campaign message he has repeated often in recent weeks, as forecasts have shifted to favor Democrats to gain control of both chambers.
Republican candidates have been put on the defensive as Democrats have surged in polling and Trump has seen his approval rating consistently slope downward. GOP leaders have redirected money to once-thought-safe House districts and Senate races in an attempt to limit losses.
The White House insists that Trump remains central to the Republican campaign, with spokesman Davis Ingle describing him as the party’s “unequivocal leader” and saying his policy positions on the economy and the border presented voters with a clear choice between a “commonsense agenda” and the “Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction” in November.
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Ingle told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement that Trump had built “one of the most robust coalitions in political history” through the MAGA movement.
Newsweek contacted the White House and the Republican National Committee via email for further comment Thursday morning.
Why It Matters
Trump has spent much of the campaign at rallies, asking supporters to act as if his name is on the ballot.
The latest comments signal a shift in messaging, reminding voters that whatever happens in the midterms, he remains in the Oval Office.
"I've won my election. I'm here whether we win this or not," the president told reporters.
The Numbers Behind Republican Election Angst
- VoteHub’s October 15 model gave Democrats an 84 percent chance of controlling the House and a 59 percent chance of winning the Senate.
- Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep at 63 percent, while Kalshi put the same outcome at 61 percent.
- The Cook Political Report has classified 21 House races and seven Senate contests as tossups in its October ratings.
- Republican spending groups are redirecting advertising dollars toward seats still considered salvageable as once-safe territory becomes competitive.
Forecasts Point Toward Democratic Control
VoteHub’s October 15 forecast projected 231 Democratic and 204 Republican House seats.
Its Senate model showed Democrats reaching 52 seats, compared with 48 for Republicans.
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Prediction markets told a similar story.
Polymarket gave Democrats a roughly 6 in 10 chance of winning both chambers, compared with 29 percent for a Republican Senate and Democratic House, 9 percent for a GOP sweep and 1 percent for a Democratic Senate paired with a Republican House.
Kalshi’s prices placed a Democratic sweep at 61 percent, divided control with Democrats taking the House at 29 percent, a Republican sweep at 11 percent and the reverse split at 0.8 percent.
These figures are not vote projections or scientific surveys.
Forecasts combine information about individual races, while market prices reflect what traders collectively believe is likely. Both can move sharply before Election Day.
Cook’s October 9 House ratings placed 213 seats in the solid, likely or lean Democratic columns and 201 on the Republican side, leaving 21 as tossups. Its October 6 Senate assessment identified seven tossups, six that involve Republican-held seats.
Republican Shift To Limiting Losses
The strategic response from Republicans is becoming visible in advertising.
Five senior Republican lawmakers told POLITICO that the House has effectively slipped away, with one saying the objective was to “save as many Republican seats as we can.” Another predicted a Democratic gain of about 10 seats.
Republican groups have withdrawn from contests involving Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa and Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey, while abandoning the Omaha-area district represented by retiring Don Bacon.
Campaign money is now being concentrated where party officials believe they can still win.
And that pressure extends to the Senate.
Spending has flowed into Kansas, South Carolina and Texas, longtime strongholds that Republicans would ordinarily expect to defend easily.
The Senate Leadership Fund had suspended North Carolina advertising reservations while investing at least $10 million in Kansas and more than $100 million in Texas, CNN reported.
A Cash Advantage With Limits
Republican organizations entered the closing month with about $1 billion, compared with roughly $579 million among comparable Democratic groups, according to The Associated Press.
MAGA Inc. alone had nearly $416 million available at the end of August.
Late spending comes with higher costs.
Trump-aligned organizations have sometimes paid more than five times the rates available to groups that reserved airtime in the spring, according to campaign officials quoted by AP.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse argued that the most effective window had already passed.
“A million dollars of advertising in October is a drop in the bucket,” he said.
Money can keep a close race alive, but it cannot guarantee voters will separate congressional candidates from the president leading their party.
Trump’s shift in tone suggests he understands that distinction even as Republicans struggle to persuade voters to make it.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Geoffrey Rowland.