How Trump’s Turn Against Zelensky Can Lead to Peace
The president’s latest mood swing opens diplomatic possibilities on Ukraine and Iran.
The Iran War just might help end the Russia–Ukraine War. And the Russia–Ukraine War just might help end the Iran War. But first, senior Trump advisors need to play their cards right.
President Donald Trump is both uniquely independent of his political advisors and uniquely dependent on them. “Independent” in that he makes big decisions on impulse, often while ignoring wise counsel. “Dependent” because Trump’s erratic persona ensures policy successes will be rare unless the White House translates his impulses into a coherent strategy.
Trump of late has been acting extra erratically. In two recent cases—the canceling of a planned execution livestream and the firing of a new White House press secretary—key Trump insiders steered the tornado-man president into political fiasco. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth had boasted that a high-profile execution by firing squad would be public, only for the public to predictably oppose the idea. And Trump whisperer Natalie Harp had urged hiring as press secretary Katie Zacharia, who proved less-than-composed before a firing squad of reporters.
The walkbacks were embarrassing, though expedient, suggesting Trump is sensitive to popular opinion ahead of the midterm elections in November. I’m normally not one for optimism when it comes to Trump 2.0 foreign policy, but here’s an idea: Trump’s enhanced sensitivity to popular opinion could lead to resolutions of the two biggest foreign policy crises of Trump’s second term—if admin officials find a way to channel his impulses productively.
Much has been made of the perilous military connections between the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and the risks of World War III. But the economic and diplomatic connections between these two wars bring new possibilities for peace.
The deeply unpopular Iran War, in a roundabout way, has wound up pushing Trump toward diplomacy with Russia. Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising prices at the pump and lowering Trump’s tolerance for Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil refineries. Earlier this month, Trump not only struck a deal with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel—a move intended to calm oil markets—but also called on Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to halt the refinery strikes.
Amid the resulting spat with Zelensky, the Trumpian pendulum continued to swing in Putin’s favor. Trump waived new Russia sanctions passed by Congress, and Zelensky said the U.S. had cut intelligence sharing to Ukraine, including advance warning of ballistic missile strikes. Meanwhile, Ukraine has run out of the U.S.-provided munitions needed to defend against those attacks, and the Pentagon is delaying new shipments.
To be sure, these are grim developments for Ukraine. On Monday, Zelensky announced that a Russian strike on a park had killed several civilians, including a one-year-old baby girl. Ukrainians have described the added terror of ballistic missile strikes when air raid sirens don’t warn civilians to take shelter.
But the security situation in Ukraine was growing ever more dire even before Trump’s turn against Zelensky. Russian attacks on Kiev and other population centers have been escalating for many months, and the Iran War has depleted global stockpiles of missile interceptors. Moreover, the White House isn’t simply kicking the Ukrainians in the teeth. Trump’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told Kiev the diesel deal was part of an effort to “soften” Putin and jump-start peace talks, a point reiterated publicly by Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
It’s not a preposterous notion. The strategy of pressuring Putin has tended to make him dig in and lash out, not back down. By introducing some carrots into the mix, Washington stands a better chance of rebuilding trust and coaxing Moscow back to negotiations. Indeed, in the same October 9 call on which Trump and Putin hammered out a diesel deal, the Russian leader proposed trilateral, Russian–American–Chinese talks on a Ukraine peace settlement, an idea that gained traction this week.
Of course, Zelensky would prefer that Ukraine and its European partners had seats at the table, but there’s a silver lining in all this for him. Wartime leaders, after years rallying their nations, can struggle to reach negotiated settlements, which require painful concessions from the weaker side. If Trump plays the bad guy, pushing Zelensky to accept a hard peace rather than continue a horrific war, the Ukrainian leader will have more political leeway.
The Europeans too would prefer they were the ones talking to Putin—but that itself is a new development brought about by Trump’s latest mood swing. On previous occasions when Trump turned against Ukraine, European leaders embarked on a groveling charm offensive to get him back onside, but not this time. “There is a growing consensus in European capitals that the continent’s leaders can no longer tolerate a situation where only the Americans are talking to Putin,” reports Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times. “Channels with the Russians are already open and a call between European leaders and Putin may happen soon.”
All this suggests Trump’s new anti-Zelensky groove, though motivated by short-term political calculations related to the Iran War, is reinvigorating diplomacy on Russia–Ukraine. And if you squint, you’ll notice this incipient outbreak of diplomacy, handled responsibly, could be brought full circle, raising the chances of productive peace negotiations with Iran.
During their October 9 phone call, Putin laid out for Trump an Iranian peace proposal. And this Monday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov flew to Tehran for talks with top Iranian officials, his first visit to the country since the war began. A Russian government readout said discussions centered around strengthening the two nations’ security partnership, but also expressed Moscow’s “readiness to help bring about a solution regarding the situation around Iran.”
Again, this whole sequence of events appears to have been sparked by Trump’s concerns about gasoline prices, rather than any commitment to enlightened statecraft. Nevertheless, Trump’s latest seesaw has raised a diplomatic opportunity that White House officials should seize.
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