The average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice in Nigeria fell by 11.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, the sharpest quarterly reduction in a decade, but millions of households still struggle with stagnant incomes and high living costs.
SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused research and consulting firm, disclosed this in its October 2026 Jollof Index report, released on Wednesday.
According to the report, the average cost of preparing jollof rice fell by N3,400, from N29,578 in June to N26,178 in September, following reductions in the prices of chicken, beef, vegetable oil and other ingredients.
However, the research firm noted that the improvement had not translated into meaningful financial relief for many households, as food remained considerably more expensive than in previous years.
The report stated, “A fall of 11.5 per cent in the index, or 8.5 per cent adjusted, has restored some protein and some vegetables to some pots. It has not restored bulk buying, and it has not changed the household budget arithmetic.”
SBM explained that the latest reduction was the largest recorded since the index was introduced in July 2016, surpassing previous declines of approximately six per cent recorded in 2017 and 2018.
Despite the improvement, the September figure remained 5.8 per cent above the corresponding period of 2025 and 540 per cent higher than the N4,087 recorded in July 2016.
The report also revealed a data collection error affecting curry and thyme prices in two Ibadan markets, which exaggerated the national decline.
After correcting the discrepancy, SBM estimated that the actual reduction was 8.5 per cent, bringing the adjusted average cost to approximately N27,055.
Regional disparities were pronounced, with Lagos recording the largest quarterly decline of 35.6 per cent, as costs dropped from N34,700 to N22,350 in both Trade Fair and Balogun markets.
Kano recorded a 9.4 per cent reduction to N23,400, while Abuja’s Wuse II market declined by 4.8 per cent to N27,800.
Conversely, Port Harcourt recorded a 2.6 per cent increase to N32,000, largely attributed to flooding, disrupted transportation and damage to agricultural production.
Calabar markets also recorded minimal reductions, with food costs remaining more than 35 per cent above their September 2025 levels.
The report identified improved poultry supply, declining animal feed costs and seasonal harvests as major drivers of the nationwide moderation.
However, household interviews revealed that declining food prices had not significantly improved purchasing power.
“In the Kano round, respondents said market prices have fallen, but our income has not increased,” the report noted.
It added that households in Abuja continued to face substantial financial pressure from rent, school fees, transportation and electricity costs.
An Ibadan respondent similarly reported that lower prices had not restored the ability to purchase food in bulk because salaries remained unchanged.
SBM warned that the improvement could prove temporary, particularly as transportation costs remained elevated and fuel prices threatened to reverse recent gains.
The report stated, “The relief is harvest-shaped and feed-shaped, and both are seasonal.”
It explained that transportation expenses increased in seven of the eight markets surveyed, despite falling food prices.
The research firm consequently urged policymakers to address structural problems affecting food distribution, including poor roads, fuel costs and informal charges along transportation routes.
“For households, the arithmetic is simpler and harsher. The pot is cheaper than it was in June, still dearer than it was last September, and the money coming in has not moved,” the report concluded.