The Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP's) attempt to emerge as an alternative to the BJP in Gujarat has suffered another setback, with the party losing its only seat in the Gandhinagar Municipal Corporation and seeing its vote share collapse just months ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections. The BJP has consolidated its position in the state's capital, while the Congress has recovered some lost ground, leaving AAP with little to show for its efforts to break the state's traditional bipolar contest.
For a party led by its National Convener, Arvind Kejriwal, that built its Gujarat ambitions around the promise of challenging the BJP on governance, public services and welfare, the results raise vital questions. Is the Kejriwal model losing its appeal in Gujarat? Or is the AAP struggling to convert its initial electoral momentum into a durable political base?
The scale of AAP's decline becomes clearer when the vote-share figures are compared with the 2021 civic polls. The party's vote share has fallen by 17.39 percentage points, from 21.77% in 2021 to just 4.38%, with 23,894 votes. It has also lost the sole seat it won in the previous election, failing to open its account in the 44-member corporation. The dip in AAP's vote share is nearly 81%.
The BJP, meanwhile, has increased its vote share from 46.49% in 2021 to 56.65% in 2026, a gain of 10.16 percentage points. The Congress has also improved its position, rising from 28.02% to 37.05%, an increase of 9.03 percentage points.
The numbers point to a significant political shift in Gandhinagar. The BJP and Congress have both strengthened their vote shares as AAP's support has plummeted. While the BJP has translated its gains into a commanding 38 seats, the Congress has increased its tally from two to five. An Independent candidate won the remaining seat.
The results won't be enthusing for the Congress, because the BJP has been in power for decades in Gujarat, and it is nowhere close to encashing on the anti-incumbency factor.
AAP's decline is particularly striking because the party had secured more than one-fifth of the votes in the 2021 election. Gujarat was one of the few states where the AAP had found promise of grassroots success.
The BJP's win in Gandhinagar provides the party relief even as it is facing massive pressure at the national level over the Election Commission row with opposition leaders and activists holding protests.
"The BJP has gained 10% vote share in the Ahmedabad municipal council election," said Union Home Minister Amit Shah and attacked the Congress and its leader, Rahul Gandhi, over its national "vote chori" allegations over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls.
"I want to convey a message to Rahul Gandhi. Congress hasn't won the election in the last 41 years," said Shah, asking, "Is this because of SIR?"
ARVIND KEJRIWAL'S GUJARAT DREAM FOR AAP
Gujarat has been central to Arvind Kejriwal's efforts to expand the AAP beyond Delhi and Punjab. For decades, the state has been dominated by the BJP, with the Congress struggling to mount a sustained challenge. The AAP sought to fill up the vacuum by presenting itself as a credible alternative, promising to deliver on education, healthcare, electricity subsidies and welfare schemes.
The Kerjiwal-led party's performance in the 2021 local body elections offered an opening. Its breakthrough in Surat, where it emerged as the principal Opposition party in the municipal corporation, gave it an opportunity to argue that Gujarat's political contest need not remain confined to the BJP and Congress.
AAP subsequently attempted to build on that momentum ahead of the 2022 Assembly elections. Kejriwal made back-to-back visits to Gujarat, announced welfare guarantees and projected former television anchor Isudan Gadhvi as the party's chief ministerial candidate.
AAP won five Assembly seats and secured 12.92% of the vote in 2022. The result helped it qualify for national party status, formally granted by the Election Commission of India in April 2023. Yet the BJP swept the election with 156 of the 182 seats, while the Congress was reduced to 17.
For Kejriwal, Gujarat carries significance beyond the state's own electoral arithmetic. It was supposed to demonstrate that AAP's governance pitch could travel beyond Delhi and Punjab and establish a credible alternative in a state long governed by the BJP. It is Kejriwal's long-time dream to project himself as a contender against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah by defeating their party in their home state.
AAP's 2022 vote share showed that the party could attract a substantial section of the electorate, even if that support did not translate into seats.
But now the Gandhinagar civic body polls rout comes like a big warning sign that is difficult to ignore. AAP's vote share has collapsed in a state capital where it once had a foothold, while both the BJP and Congress have expanded their support. The Kejriwal-led party will now have to go back to the drawing board and introspect on whether it is ready for the upcoming Assembly polls.
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