Hanmi Pharmaceutical (128940.KS) is expected to post third-quarter results below market expectations as the recognition of an upfront licensing payment has been pushed back, according to a brokerage report. Still, the planned commercial launch of its obesity treatment this year and the prospect of additional licensing deals for follow-up drug candidates were cited as factors supporting medium- to long-term growth.
Kyobo Securities said in a report on the 16th that it estimates Hanmi Pharmaceutical's third-quarter consolidated revenue at 380.9 billion won, up 5.1% from a year earlier, with operating profit falling 27.6% to 39.9 billion won. The brokerage maintained its buy rating and target price of 700,000 won, implying about 81.3% upside from the previous day's close of 386,000 won.
The main reason for the earnings slowdown is the deferral of the upfront licensing payment. "The upfront payment for the HM17321 licensing deal is scheduled to be recognized in the fourth quarter," said Jung Hee-ryung, an analyst at Kyobo Securities. In August, Hanmi Pharmaceutical licensed out HM17321, an obesity drug candidate being developed to reduce body weight while preserving muscle, to Genentech, a subsidiary of Roche, in a deal worth up to about $2.3 billion. The brokerage also estimated that research and development costs at Aptose, the Canadian biotech firm Hanmi acquired in the second quarter, will add roughly 4.5 billion won in expenses per quarter as they are consolidated into earnings starting in the third quarter.
Beijing Hanmi, the company's Chinese subsidiary, is expected to see revenue decline from a year earlier due to the impact of China's centralized drug procurement policy, though results should improve from the previous quarter. Third-quarter revenue is estimated at 74.3 billion won, down 21.0% year-on-year. "Beijing Hanmi is working to expand products that are not subject to centralized procurement," Jung said. "For some uncollected receivables, it appears to be tightening management by receiving payment before shipping products."
A key point to watch going forward is how the obesity drug establishes itself in the market. The obesity treatment Efpe has received approval from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety and is expected to be commercialized this year. Hanmi Pharmaceutical is reportedly planning to capture about 5% of the domestic obesity treatment market, estimated at around 2 trillion won, in its first year.
Progress in drug development and further licensing deals are also variables to watch. Efinopegdutide, a treatment for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) licensed to Merck of the U.S., has completed trials in patients with F4-stage disease, or cirrhosis. Kyobo Securities suggested related results could be presented at events including the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) meeting in November. HM15275, a triple agonist currently in Phase 2 trials in the U.S., was also cited as a candidate for additional licensing.
"Based on the multiple licensing deals signed this year, we also expect an additional licensing deal for the triple agonist HM15275 going forward," Jung said. "The company has multiple R&D and earnings catalysts."
