The Los Angeles Rams were seen as a virtual lock to make the playoffs before the season began. As the Super Bowl favorites, anything less than a championship would’ve been a major disappointment.
After six games, they have a big hill to climb if they’re even going to make the postseason. At 2-4, they’re tied for last place in the NFC West and are in danger of letting their season slip away before the calendar even turns to November.
Their loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon was particularly painful, given the fact that they were massive favorites at home against a team that had just one win coming in. And in the final few seconds, their playoff odds took a major hit.
According to Next Gen Stats, on Jacob Brissett’s 21-yard pass to Jalen Brooks, which had 15 yards tacked on due to a controversial penalty, the Cardinals’ win probability jumped 48.6%. They went on to win with a 41-yard field goal, dropping the Rams’ playoff chances to only 43%.
Had they won, they would’ve had a 67% chance to make the postseason, per Next Gen Stats.
The Cardinals win probability increased from 26.1% to 74.7% as a result of this play, which included a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty (+48.6%).
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 18, 2026
The Rams' probability of making the playoffs would have been 67% with a win. That number drops to 43% with a loss. https://t.co/s5vYlTq53A
The season is far from over, but the Rams may have to win eight of their final 11 games in order to make the playoffs. And that upcoming slate includes games against the Packers, Chiefs, 49ers and two games against the Seahawks.
It's not going to be easy, but they can't start a winning streak unless they find a way to snap their two-game losing skid.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Rams' playoff odds take major hit, dip below 50% with loss to Cardinals