Saudi Arabia is facing a familiar problem in Yemen: having the military resources to strike the Iran-backed Houthis hard, but no guarantee that a campaign will stop the heavily armed militant group from threatening the kingdom again.
The latest wave of missile and drone attacks has brought that dilemma into sharper focus, with Houthi strikes hitting Saudi airports and threatening critical energy infrastructure, including Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran.
While Saudi Arabia’s challenge is restoring deterrence, analysts say Riyadh’s options are narrow. They include intensifying air strikes, bolstering Yemeni government forces on the ground, strengthening air defences and seeking renewed diplomatic engagement.
“Saudi Arabia should apply military pressure on the Houthis inside Yemen to deter further attacks,” Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Centre, told The National. “A key priority is to limit their ability to launch cross-border attacks, particularly by degrading their missile capabilities.”
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis began to escalate in July, when an air strike hit Sanaa International Airport, an attack the Houthis blamed on Saudi Arabia. Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government claimed responsibility, saying it had hit the runway to prevent an unauthorised Iranian aircraft from landing.
The strike tested a fragile period of calm that had largely held since a truce took effect in 2022. The Houthis subsequently launched missiles towards Saudi Arabia, while fighting between the group and Yemeni forces intensified.
Mr Sager said that the kingdom had accepted the principle of a ceasefire with the Houthis and remained committed to de-escalation. “However, renewed military pressure may be necessary before agreeing to another ceasefire, to secure credible commitments that attacks will stop,” he added.
The Houthis have been fighting the Yemeni government since seizing Sanaa in 2014. Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015 at the head of a coalition of regional allies to support the government against the rebels.
Beyond air power
Saudi Arabia has one of the world’s largest military budgets and a sophisticated arsenal, including American warplanes, missile-defence systems and other advanced weapons.
However, Aziz Algashian, a senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, said defeating the Houthis militarily would require more than air power.
The kingdom has demonstrated its ability to conduct air operations, but he explained that a successful campaign would also require effective ground forces capable of changing the balance of power in Houthi-held territory. Maritime forces would be needed to restrict the movement of supplies reaching the group through the Red Sea and from the Horn of Africa, he added.
That combination could be difficult to assemble. Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis have improved their capabilities, but continue to face problems of competence and political fragmentation.
“The reason why the Houthis may hold what they have is not because of their strength, but really the weakness of the other ground operation,” said Mr Algashian. “A state-building approach would also be needed.”
The Houthis, once regarded as a relatively poorly equipped militia, have developed into a formidable fighting force. Their arsenal includes missiles and drones that can strike targets more than 1,000 miles away.
Since the war in Gaza erupted in 2023, the group has launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel. Most were intercepted, but some reached their targets, including a drone strike in Tel Aviv that killed a man in 2024 and a missile strike near Ben Gurion Airport last year.
The war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is a spillover from the wider war with Iran that the US and Israel launched in February. Washington and Tehran have not yet reached a lasting peace agreement. In recent weeks, they have exchanged proposals to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy shipments, but negotiations have not resumed.
Some observers argue that a broader agreement between the US and Iran offers the most viable path to ending Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Under such a deal, the US could seek Iranian commitments to rein in the Houthis and secure an end to their attacks as part of a wider regional settlement. But whether the group would comply with such an arrangement is not known.
US assistance
The US supports Saudi Arabia in countering the Houthis through arms sales, military advisers, intelligence sharing and targeting assistance, though it has avoided direct military combat operations.
President Donald Trump has said he is considering joining strikes against the Houthis, as the rebels attack a US ally and threaten global energy supplies. The Houthis have warned that any US strikes could prompt them to attack American personnel and interests across the Middle East, potentially drawing the US deeper into the wider war.
But a senior US official has told The National that the Trump administration has “no announcements to make regarding US support for new military operations” in Yemen. The official added that the administration remains in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government. “We will always fulfil our commitments to our partners."
Mr Algashian believes American firepower could deter the Houthis, at least initially. But he cautioned that the rebels may be prepared to absorb the strikes and wait for US resolve to weaken. “The Houthis feel they will try to weather the storm. Their calculation seems to be that they have withstood many storms before,” he added. “The Saudis still need their allies and still need to focus on alliances for defence.”
Mr Trump ordered a bombing campaign against the Houthis last year, but declared a swift victory after the US expended weapons and munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone.
“Saudi Arabia should also mobilise the international community to respond to this aggression against the kingdom. Strengthening Saudi defensive capabilities and securing support from regional and international partners are essential to protecting its territory and deterring further attacks,” affirmed Mr Sager.