Why is US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visiting Mumbai and Jamnagar in Gujarat while skipping New Delhi? Congress MP Rahul Gandhi has highlighted this, albeit taking a jibe at the Modi government, while the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) called it normal. However, for Rubio's US, things are far from normal. Right ahead of the November midterms, President Donald Trump is being challenged by a diesel crisis at home. And Rubio will be here this week to ensure a fuel refill.
That "this trip is a little more business-focussed", has already been revealed by the US Ambassador to India and one of President Donald Trump's closest aides, Sergio Gor.
"This time the Secretary [Rubio] will be going to Mumbai, and he will have a lot of meetings there. He will also be going to Jamnagar, where he will meet some of the folks at Reliance. Reliance is one of the biggest oil refinery companies in the world... They are opening the first refinery in the United States in 50 years," Gor said on Thursday.
Rubio's visit and the talk about energy cooperation comes as the US faces a diesel crisis, right ahead of the November midterms. The latest CNN Poll of Polls show that just 34% of Americans approve Trump's handling of the presidency while 34% disapprove of it.
The destination suggests that Rubio might have his eyes on India's enormous oil-refining capacity. At a time when American households and businesses are struggling with high fuel prices, and the US had to strike a "diesel-deal" with archrival Russia, India's ability to turn crude oil into diesel could be particularly valuable. And Jamnagar, home to the world's largest refining complex, might be central to that equation.
Rubio is scheduled to visit India from October 19 to 22, with a meeting with India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar on October 20, and other programmes reportedly involving Reliance Industries, and discussions on energy cooperation and investment.
Rubio's India visit comes amid efforts by Trump to persuade Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, as Washington grapples with soaring fuel prices.
There is another related development. On October 15, India announced a reduction in the export duty on diesel, effective October 16. The move makes Indian diesel cheaper to export at a time when global markets are struggling with supply disruptions. In contrast, India has raised the export duty on petrol.
While there's no official confirmation that Rubio is coming to India to secure diesel supplies. But the timing, circumstances, his choice of destination and America's growing fuel-price problem point in that direction.
HAS DIESEL BECOME A HEADACHE FOR TRUMP?
The US is a roadways' nation, and diesel is not just another fuel for it. Diesel fuels the trucks that transport food, industrial goods and construction materials across the US, besides powering most freight trains and much of the country's agricultural and heavy machinery.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), diesel and other distillate fuels accounted for around 22% of America's transportation energy consumption in 2025, which makes their prices crucial to the cost of moving goods across the country.
And that is precisely the problem confronting the Trump administration.
According to the EIA, the national average retail diesel price touched $6.529 per gallon on September 21, 2026. By October 12, it had eased a bit to $6.179, but remained at an exceptionally high level.
The US consumes roughly four million barrels of distillated fuel oil daily, a category that includes diesel and heating oil.
Although America is a major producer of diesel, it is not insulated from international prices. A shortage or strain in Europe or Asia can push up prices in the US because refined petroleum products are traded globally.
Higher diesel prices mean more expensive transportation, food and everyday essentials, adding to inflationary pressures. And it's definitely not good news ahead of the midterm elections.
THAT'S WHY TRUMP WANTS UKRAINE TO STOP ATTACKING RUSSIAN REFINERIES
The urgency of the situation became evident on October 11, when Trump announced what he described as an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
According to Reuters, Trump had pressed Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, which have repeatedly been targeted during the war.
The reason is not difficult to understand. Russia is one of the world's major oil producers and exporters of refined petroleum products. Damage to its refineries can reduce the availability of diesel in international markets and push up prices elsewhere. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv immediately confirmed Trump's announcement.
In August, India Today Digital explained why Russia, one of the world's biggest oil exporters, was importing petrol from India, a country that imports 90% of its petroleum needs.
According to a Bloomberg report, Russia received a shipment of about 42,000 barrels of petrol from Indian processor Nayara Energy Ltd on August 5, which was the first ever time Moscow has imported the fuel from India.
It was a series of audacious drone strikes by Ukraine that targeted Russian refineries that compelled Moscow to buy petrol from India.
While India might not have oil reserves, it has established an enviable refining infrastructure. And that is where the Jamnagar Refinery Complex comes into the picture as the world goes through an energy crisis.
WHY JAMNAGAR COULD BE IMPORTANT FOR AMERICA
Reliance Industries' Jamnagar complex in Gujarat is no ordinary refinery. With a combined crude-processing capacity of around 1.4 million barrels per day, it is the world's largest refining complex at a single location. The facility can process different grades of crude oil and produce petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other petroleum products.
Interestingly, it was Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries that backed a proposed oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas, which Trump announced as the first major new US refinery project in nearly 50 years.
The project, being developed by America First Refining, received an investment of at least $100 million from Reliance, according to a June 9 investigation by ProPublica. The investigation also revealed that Donald Trump Jr had acquired a stake in America First Refining, although his spokesperson maintained that he was only a passive minority investor with no operational involvement.
Coming back to Gujarat's Jamnagar. According to Reliance Industries, the complex has the flexibility to process different types of crude and adjust its product mix depending on market requirements. That flexibility would be of importance at a time when diesel supplies have been disrupted by wars and attacks on energy infrastructure.
The Jamnagar complex has also been supplying diesel to international markets since the war in Ukraine started in 2022. Then, Western sanctions on crude producer Russia and the disruption of global oil supplies sent energy prices soaring. That's when India bought discounted Russian crude, refined it into diesel and other fuels, and exported it to markets including Europe, which had stopped buying Russian petroleum products directly.
According to a July 30 Reuters report, Reliance increased diesel shipments to Europe and Brazil. Shipping data from Kpler and Vortexa indicated that exports to Europe reached between four million and five million barrels that month.
For Washington, Jamnagar's significance is not necessarily limited to buying diesel directly from India. More Indian diesel entering the international market could help ease shortages elsewhere, potentially bringing down prices in the US as well.
INDIA HAS JUST MADE DIESEL EXPORTS CHEAPER
Therefore, it is understandable why Rubio has kept his programme limited to Mumbai and Jamnagar, skipping New Delhi. However, Congress Leader Rahul Gandhi used the scheduled meeting between Rubio and Jaishankar, which was signalled by envoy Gor, to target the Narendra Modi government.
"Rubio has summoned his employee to Mumbai. Modi, your officials in the External Affairs Ministry are confused about what's going on. You might want to explain. Unless, of course, you want me to," Rahul said in a cryptic post on Friday.
Later in the day, while responding to a question, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that Jaishankar would be the guest of honour at an event in Mumbai marking the 250th anniversary of the independence of the US.
"It has been the practice for the last decade or so that we have hosted foreign dignitaries outside Delhi," clarified Jaiswal on the meeting between Jaishankar and Rubio in Mumbai.
Coincidentally, the Indian government on October 15 announced that the export duty on diesel would be reduced from Rs 16 per litre to Rs 8.50 per litre, effective October 16. At the same time, the export duty on petrol was increased from 50 paise to Rs 2.50 per litre.
The diesel duty was thus reduced by Rs 7.50 per litre, making exports less heavily taxed. The lower duty could make Indian diesel exports more attractive at a time when international demand remains strong.
And Rubio's visit to Jamnagar is also about long-term diesel supplies. Reliance Industries is setting up a $300-billion refinery in Brownsville, Texas. The America First Refining will be producing ultra-low sulphur diesel among other petroleum products like jet fuel and gasoline (petrol). Remember, a good part of the Secretary's visit will be spent at the Jamnagar refinery.
While there's no official confirmation that Rubio's visit is aimed at securing diesel supplies from India. But with diesel prices soaring in the US, Russian refineries under attack and Reliance setting up a giant refinery in Texas, the timing of his Jamnagar visit is important. The world's largest refining complex could offer Washington some relief from the supply crunch. Whether or not diesel is on Rubio's shopping list, what comes out of Jamnagar's refineries could be as important to Washington as what is discussed at the diplomatic table.
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(Written by Sushim Mukul)