China solar module prices steady as proposed price floors meet skepticism

China’s mainstream TOPCon module export prices held steady for a second week, despite efforts by major polysilicon producers to set minimum price floors on module and polysilicon products.

According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on Oct. 20, the Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules below 645 W from China, was unchanged at $0.107/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China.

Forward prices were also stable, with Q1 2027 loading assessed at $0.106/W and Q2 through Q4 2027 at $0.105/W.

Under the pricing framework discussed by China’s eight major polysilicon manufacturers at an Oct. 11 meeting in Hangzhou, minimum selling prices of CNY 0.79 ($0.118) /W for TOPCon modules and CNY 0.86/W for back-contact modules were proposed, equivalent to $0.118/W and $0.129/W FOB, alongside a minimum polysilicon selling price of CNY 43/kg, inclusive of tax.

Market participants, however, remained skeptical that the proposed measures would provide price support amid persistent oversupply and weak downstream demand.

Several trade sources questioned whether the pricing discipline could be sustained, as industry self-discipline agreements do not constitute legally enforceable price controls and their effectiveness depends on manufacturers’ willingness to comply.

A source at a Chinese top-tier integrated manufacturer similarly described the proposed fixed module pricing mechanism as difficult to implement, suggesting that efforts by these major polysilicon producers to dictate downstream module prices could be “one-sided wishful thinking”.

In Oct. 2024, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIY) released an estimated photovoltaic modules production cost of CNY 0.68/W in an attempt to address below-cost bidding in large-scale procurement tenders. However, industry sources noted that the price guideline was non-binding, allowing manufacturers to continue submitting bids below the suggested floor.

Weak installation demand and pressure to clear inventories ahead of year-end could further undermine efforts to stabilize prices, sources said. A tier-1 vertically integrated manufacturer said module shipments were subdued in the third quarter, with producers likely to cut prices in the fourth quarter to stimulate sales volumes, defend market share and support revenue. The manufacturer expected prices to remain stable or edge lower through the rest of the year.

Another downstream manufacturer said the short-term price outlook would also depend on whether manufacturers could secure higher selling prices on existing inventories, adding that many producers were highly motivated to clear stocks in the final quarter of the year.

The outlook for high-efficiency modules, however, was less certain, with demand potentially strengthening in 2027 as China introduces tighter efficiency requirements and increases the adoption of higher-efficiency technologies in its domestic market.

The mandatory national standard taking effect on Jan. 1, 2027 sets minimum efficiencies of 23.2%, 23.2% and 23.5% for n-type TOPCon, HJT and BC modules, respectively. On Oct. 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) proposed higher thresholds of 23.4%, 23.4% and 23.7% under its draft 2026 Standard Conditions for the PV manufacturing industry.

Separately, China has proposed export controls on 12 photovoltaic technologies including polysilicon, silicon wafer and cell manufacturing technologies as well as the technology management of core equipment.

According to the proposal, certain technologies such as perovskite tandem cells would be categorized as prohibited exports, while TOPCon, back-contact and heterojunction technologies would be subject to export restrictions where specified thresholds are met.

One market analyst expected limited impact on China’s solar product exports, as the new export controls primarily target manufacturing technologies rather than finished products.

The analyst said the measures could reinforce China’s technological leadership by restricting the transfer of proprietary know-how, particularly as overseas markets increasingly push to localize solar manufacturing. This could also benefit Chinese vertically integrated solar manufacturers by preserving their technological advantage, the source said.

However, tighter controls could complicate overseas manufacturing capacity expansions, joint ventures, technology licensing and equipment shipments involving restricted production know-how. Additional registration and licensing requirements could extend project lead times and introduce uncertainty, the analyst added.

OPIS is a specialist business within Dow Jones Energy, a global energy intelligence business that brings together trusted price reporting, research and market intelligence across the energy value chain. OPIS publishes the OPIS Global Solar Markets Service, which includes pricing data for solar panels and components across Asia, Europe and the U.S., manufacturing capacity data, module forward curves, and a global solar policy tracker.