Commentary: Trump wants cheaper diesel, but Ukraine could pay the price

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SINGAPORE: United States President Donald Trump has blindsided Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy twice in almost as many days: First on Friday (Oct 9), when Mr Trump permitted Russian diesel imports into the US under a sanctions waiver running until April 2027. Then on Sunday, when he declared that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to cease attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, which neither has confirmed.

Mr Trump’s U-turn on Russian diesel is all the more drastic since it comes only three weeks after he signed a new law that authorises tariffs of up to 100 per cent on the top purchasers of Russian energy. Instead, Russia has gained a reprieve from the US.

With the midterm elections looming, many US consumers grappling with rising fuel prices blame this on Mr Trump's ongoing war against Iran. For Mr Trump to now blame the diesel shortfall on Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russian refineries – and to suggest the solution is Russian diesel – amounts to theatrical misdirection.

As Mr Zelenskyy has pointed out with exasperation, Russia also continues to strike energy infrastructure in Ukraine, including at least six targets just hours after Mr Trump declared the energy ceasefire “effective immediately”.

The critical question is whether Mr Trump, in his attempts to minimise his self-inflicted domestic political problems, is now making Ukraine even more vulnerable to Russian pressure.

MORE PRESSURE ON KYIV THAN MOSCOW

Energy analysts point out that Mr Trump’s gambit is unlikely to significantly reduce diesel prices.

Russian diesel exports are a small fraction of US domestic demand: By one estimate, Russia can release over 2 million barrels in October, but US consumers use around 3.6 million barrels per day.

Moreover, it can take weeks for Russian shipments to reach the US’ east coast, and Russia may struggle to increase supply in November and December due to damage its refineries sustained form Ukrainian attacks.

For Russia, the diplomatic gain may be more significant than any additional revenue. Mr Trump has often shown more willingness to apply pressure on Ukraine than Russia. Not only has he unilaterally eased pressure on Russia now, but it seems he has done so without making meaningful progress on fostering negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine.

To further deflect attention and express his frustration, Mr Trump also called on Ukraine to “get a new president” who could come to an agreement with President Vladimir Putin to end Russia’s war.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham and other European leaders have reiterated their solidarity with the Ukrainian president and agreed that the suspension of elections in Ukraine is permissible due to wartime conditions. On Sunday, Mr Zelenskyy offered to hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, something Russia promptly refused.

UKRAINE HAS DEALT REAL DAMAGE        

After more than four years of its full-scale invasion, Russia's leadership may be sensing its best chance to coerce Ukraine into concessions is coming in the next few months.

As Ukraine heads closer into yet another bitter winter, Russia is focusing its coercive military strategy on plunging Ukrainian cities into darkness, forcing rolling power cuts, and making life harrowing for citizens who face regular air strikes.

Ukraine officially continues to reject a deal to end the war on Mr Putin’s terms. There is some credence to this optimism, based on its ability to successfully defend its front line in the Donbas while continuing to launch strikes against targets in Russia.

This week, Ukraine launched drone attacks against Russian tech giant Yandex’s data centres, mirroring Kremlin’s own target choices in its prior attacks. The strikes on Yandex have caused some data outages and digital service disruptions in Russia. Kyiv has suggested this hampered Russia’s online propaganda efforts, though disinformation experts don’t believe there has been much impact.

But by far the biggest damage caused by Ukraine have been in its attacks on Russian refineries. In a rare admission, Mr Putin admitted that Russia has lost about 1 per cent of GDP because of these Ukrainian attacks.

GRIM REALITY FOR UKRAINE

However, the grim reality facing Ukraine is that simply staying in the fight does not increase its chances of securing a favourable outcome from the war.

Even if European governments rally around Mr Zelenskyy and support Ukraine's war effort, Ukraine is set to emerge greatly weakened from this winter for three reasons.

First, while his ire at Mr Zelenskyy may ease, Mr Trump has the goal of stopping Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. The US has leverage to achieve this.

If Ukraine does not comply, US officials have reportedly threatened to limit or cease their intelligence sharing with Ukraine, and to suspend an arrangement whereby US weapons are purchased by European countries and passed to Ukraine. If the US acts on these threats, Mr Zelenskyy faces a choice between ceding Ukraine's main way of damaging Russia or further losing US support.

Second, although the pressures on both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries are immense after a long war, Ukraine's comparatively smaller size leaves it more vulnerable to the compounding effects of wartime attrition.

Shortages in military manpower, and pressures on its logistics system to supply its war effort, are accumulating. They are being hastened by Russia’s renewed targeting of Ukrainian railway hubs and warehouses, and Ukraine’s lack of effective air defences.

Third, Ukraine’s economy is in a difficult state. Russia’s occupation of 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory is often cited as evidence that it never meaningfully broke through Ukraine’s defences.

But Russia does hold around 80 per cent of Ukraine’s coastline. Much of Ukraine's sea export depends on Odessa and smaller nearby ports. Russia now targets ships carrying exports from these ports, killing some of the crew on cargo vessels, further imperilling Ukraine’s long-term economic future and leaving it dependent on foreign financial assistance.

On the current trajectory of events, and assuming Mr Trump continues to pressure Kyiv more than Moscow, Ukraine will enter 2027 arguably in its most weakened position since the earliest days of the all-out invasion.

Dr Samir Puri is Visiting Lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London. His books include Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine and Westlessness.