“There is light at the end of the tunnel” – President Tinubu, October 1, 2026 address to Nigerians.
One American comedian, in the early 1970s, made a wise crack: “Everything comes to them that wait – everything that nobody else wants, that is.” Reforms have made Dangote, Rabiu, Otedola, Adenuga, bankers and insurance entrepreneurs, Chagoury, Ministers, Governors and political appointees richer. It has made 99.9 per cent of Nigerians infinitesimally poorer. You hosted the billionaires who benefited from your reforms without asking them to wait. That, to me, amounts to taking money from the poor, asked to wait, to feed the overfed, who are not waiting to see any light at the end of the tunnel. With no shred of remorse or empathy, you take pride in turning Nigeria’s democracy into “a government of the rich, by the rich and for the rich”; when almost all the votes which made you President were delivered by the poor and middle class – whose aspirations for a better life have, so far, been betrayed.
THE IMPACT OF REFORMS ON HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS
“There are only two families in the world; my grandmother used to say; the Haves and Have-nots” – Miguel de Cervantes, 1547-1616.
Cervantes, the author of the great classic, DON QUIXOTE, might be surprised, if he wakes up in Nigeria, today, to discover how little things have changed in this country – especially since 2015; when Nigerians were deceived to vote for a change which would prove devastating to most of us. Until 11 years ago, there was still a gradual decline from the wealthy, to the rich, to the upper middle class, lower middle class, to the poor – those living on less than $2 dollars a day. Today, two dollars a day, or N2, 800 per person or N16, 800 for an average family, has become a small fortune beyond the reach of most. In 2015, the same family needed only N2, 160 to live well. So, when you ask us to wait, without stating the waiting period, the obvious question is: Will per capita income rise to pre-2015 levels or will prices drop to pre-2015 levels; or both? Putting it bluntly: what exactly are we waiting to see at the end of that endless dark tunnel into which the All Progressives Congress, APC, has shoved us?
SENIOR CITIZENS HAVE A PECULIAR PROBLEM
“In the long run, we are all dead” – John Maynard Keynes,
Who are “We”, who cannot wait? The Senior Citizens; for reasons I will explain shortly.
President Tinubu’s October 1, 2026 address was replete with promises about future prosperity. There is nothing wrong with that. Hope springs eternal at any age. Senior Citizens, however, have a peculiar problem when issues are framed within the context of long timelines. They might not live long to share in the promised bonanza.
The World Health Organisation, WHO, has defined Old Age as 65 years and over. That is global. Nigeria’s Life Expectancy has remained stuck at 54 for nearly 10 years. So although, more Nigerians now live longer than 65; it is also true that more Nigerians die before 65 than ever before. The good news is that many of those below 65 might live to reach and surpass that age; the bad news is millions, now 54, might not make it to 65.
The same is true of the Methuselahs – those who seem to defy death by living up to 80, 90 and even 100+. At 82+, I am one of them; and we have some things in common.
We were born in the 1930s to mid-1940s; and grew up in a Nigeria where three meals a day was the norm for most families. Even those regarded as poor took in two sure meals a day. Nigeria was a net food exporter until the middle 1970s – when the curse of oil descended on us. We were not aware, at the time that the temporary windfall, which prompted General Gowon to proclaim that “money is not our problem, but, how to spend it” would not last forever. We were in our 30s and 40s then, innocent of the fact that “fortune’s favours never last” (Seneca) – unless prudently managed.
The first shock was received in 1978 when General Obasanjo announced Austerity Measures. The party was over. Nigeria, which gave grants and loans to other nations, was in the market for a loan – $2.8 billion; which we were told would be easily repaid, our economy would rebound and “there is light at the end of the tunnel”. Those were Obasanjo’s words of comfort in 1978. Except for very few lucky individuals, most of our mates passed on without ever seeing the “light at the end of the tunnel”.
From Shagari, 1979-1983, to Buhari I, 1983-1985, Babangida, 1985-1993, Abacha, 1993-1998; Abdulsalami Abubakar, 1998-1999, Obasanjo II, 1999-2007; Yar’Adua, 2007-2010, Jonathan, 2010-2015, Buhari II, 2015-2023, we lived through eight governments – each using different words to send the same message – tighten your belts; wait for the light at the end of the tunnel.
Thus, when President Tinubu’s speech-writers inserted that statement into his October 1, 2026 address, Senior Citizens were uniformly unimpressed. It was “the same old stew, warmed up and served in new plate” (apologies to Babangida). At 82+, people in my class have heard the empty promise without deadline so many times we wish the next President will find something new to say.
MANY HAVE PASSED ON SINCE 1978
“Dead men don’t eat” – American detective, 1970s
The officer was investigating a case of a man presumed dead, without the body being found; until the missing person inadvertently called one of his girl-friends – whose phone was tapped. A date was fixed for a restaurant. The cops were waiting; they allowed the couple to start their dinner before moving in with photographers; and to make the arrest. Later, the detective told reporters: “Dead men don’t eat”.
Since 1978, millions of Nigerians have passed on without ever experiencing the promised prosperity. Nigeria, like most nations, publishes only the births of babies; not, the number of deaths. Additionally, not all the births and deaths are even registered. But, I reckoned that about 4 million Nigerians die every year. Therefore, 44 million have moved on since 2015 till 2023 – who will never partake of the bountiful harvest.
Since 2027, 2028 and possibly 2031 have been ruled out as the deadline for deliverance, and 16 million will be added to those waiting for nothing – most of them will be Senior Citizens. Ask any insurance professional; the chances of an 80-year-old person living till 2031 are so slim; nobody should expect it.
What are we waiting for?
CATALOGUE OF UNFULFILLED PROMISES
“Don’t believe politicians promises made during election campaigns” – Governor Otti of Abia State.
Hitherto, I have held strongly to the belief that only former Akwa Ibom State Governor, Obong Victor Attah, passed my acid test of honesty among Nigerian politicians. Governor Otti of Abia State might be running close – considering that he is still in politics; running for second term and making promises. The most honest person will frequently admonish his listeners by saying, “Don’t believe everything I say.”
The problem most of us, not die-hard APC cardholders, have is regarding so many promises solemnly made – which were not fulfilled. Permit me to list a few; starting with the most recent two: Crashing transport fares on October 1, 2026 and N1, 350 per litre fuel. The first was not redeemed; the second is a scam, as less than four percent of Nigerians will benefit from N1, 350 fuel.
It is difficult to believe someone pledging to deliver benefits, in the distant future, who is failing woefully today. Remember your promise to provide power supply 24/7; otherwise nobody should vote for you. It was later modified by adding “unless I have a good excuse”. You and I lived in America for years. Uncle Sam’s government doesn’t remember me; because I left no “record”. In America, your amendment of the original statement would be regarded as “bait and switch” – not everybody who heard the first would be aware of the alteration.
Be that as it may; today’s guaranteed power supply remains approximately 4, 000MW; that was how Jonathan left it in 2015. 11 years of APC rule has not added one MW. How can you expect us to believe that four more years will make a difference?
FUTURE MORE BLEAK- FUL THAN HOPEFUL
“Nigeria’s debt interest soars 124% above revenue” – Report, October 12, 2026
“17.9m Nigerians fall into poverty in three years –Report” – October 13, 2026
“AI: World Bank, IMF warn of jobs crisis in Nigeria, others” – VANGUARD, October 13, 2026
The first report was from the World Bank; which a week before had commended your reform programme – while predicting annual Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth of 4.5, 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027. You personally took credit for that favourable endorsement. Compared with eight years of Buhari, averaging less than 1.5 per cent, that is indisputably spectacular. However, measured against Jonathan’s five years average, 6.5 per cent, it is a setback not worthy of applause.
The same World Bank has poured cold water on your parade with the latest report on debt. You can’t reject it.
The United Nations Development Programme and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative just revealed more concerning data constituting a very poor report card on the government.
Sir, you should be careful about embracing positive World Bank reports. The third one, not the last where that came from, is so frightening in its implications for the future, the President, with all due respects, might need to check again – if the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train out of control; moving to destroy everything standing in its way.
Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola
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