At the same time, Washington is pressuring Kyiv to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries.
According to the publication, American and European negotiators are trying to formulate a package of agreements that would allow the parties to assess postwar prospects and create conditions for a territorial compromise. However, the proposed solutions will not fully align with the initial military objectives of either Ukraine or Russia.
A U.S. official familiar with the negotiations explained that the goal is to broaden the discussion beyond the territorial issue. He said the parties need to demonstrate the economic and political opportunities that would emerge after hostilities end in order to encourage them to make concessions.
A new phase of diplomatic efforts intensified following a six-hour meeting in Florida last Friday. The talks were organized by U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Ukrainian representatives participated in the meeting, along with officials from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. The talks took place at Witkoff’s Shell Bay golf club in Hollywood.
According to the U.S. official, the package of agreements under consideration consists of four main areas. Washington hopes this comprehensive approach will not only help bring the fighting to an end but also create the conditions for long-term regional stability.
1. Ukraine’s Reconstruction
The first component will be a postwar reconstruction program. The World Bank, together with investment firm BlackRock, intends to develop a mechanism to finance Ukraine’s needs.
The funds are expected to be used to rebuild devastated areas, support the families of fallen and wounded soldiers, and revive the Ukrainian economy.
American negotiators have asked Kyiv to prepare detailed cost estimates and guarantees for the transparent use of funds. According to The Washington Post, Ukraine has not yet submitted its final estimates, but they are expected in the coming days if negotiations continue.
2. Security guarantees
The second component would involve a commitment by the United States and European countries to provide military assistance to Ukraine in the event of another Russian attack.
A U.S. official compared the proposed guarantees to Article 5 of NATO, which provides for a collective response by allies to an armed attack against one of the alliance’s members.
At the same time, Moscow will have to discuss its own security demands with European countries. The specific terms of these agreements have yet to be determined.
3. Economic and Energy Agreements
The third area involves potential economic rapprochement between Russia, Ukraine and European countries. Among the options under consideration is the construction of a pipeline to supply Europe with Russian oil and gas, with part of the revenue shared between Moscow and Kyiv.
According to the U.S. official, implementing such a project could reduce energy costs for European countries.
Shutterstock/Tomasz Makowski
In addition, discussions are expected to cover Russia’s long-term access to the European energy market, as well as the mechanism and timeline for the possible lifting of current economic sanctions.
4. Territorial compromise
The most difficult issue remains the future of the occupied Ukrainian territories.
Under the scenario being considered, Russia would have to agree to a cessation of hostilities along the current front line, which negotiators refer to as the “line of control.” At the same time, Ukraine would likely have to accept Moscow’s de facto control over the occupied territories, including parts of Donbas.
However, the final terms of a potential territorial settlement have yet to be agreed upon. The unstable situation on the front line adds another complication, as the line of contact is constantly shifting due to local advances and troop withdrawals.
Why Trump is demanding an end to attacks on Russian oil refineries
One contentious issue in the negotiations has been Washington’s demand that Ukraine and Russia halt mutual attacks on oil refineries.
For Moscow, complying with this condition may be less difficult, as Ukraine’s largest oil refinery has already sustained significant damage as a result of Russian strikes. For Kyiv, however, abandoning such attacks would mean giving up one of its tools for exerting pressure on the Russian economy.
“It is clear that Ukraine’s ability to strike oil refineries affects the Russian economy. This has strengthened Zelensky’s negotiating position,” a European diplomat said.
EPA-EFE/SARAH YENESEL
According to a U.S. official, during the negotiations in Florida, Kushner and Witkoff urged the Ukrainian side to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries. They also warned that Trump intended to conclude a deal to purchase Russian diesel fuel.
The source claims that in recent months, U.S. representatives have made a similar request to Kyiv approximately six times amid a sharp rise in diesel prices.
After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the proposal, Trump struck a deal to purchase diesel fuel from Russia. According to the authors, the American leader’s decision was partly aimed at lowering fuel prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
Zelensky described Trump’s actions as “weak.” In response, the U.S. president threatened to cut off intelligence support to Ukraine. Commenting on the importance of American assistance, a European diplomat noted that its capabilities were “difficult to replicate.”
A U.S. official stated that if Zelensky agrees to halt attacks on oil refineries, Washington is prepared to resume further negotiations with Moscow.
Why the prospects for a Peace Deal remain uncertain
Despite disagreements over the diesel deal, European leaders do not intend to abandon the diplomatic process led by Kushner and Witkoff, according to The Washington Post.
“Now is the time to calm things down and get back to work,” a European diplomat said.
The need for a settlement is explained by the scale of the casualties and the depletion of resources on both sides. According to estimates cited in the report, Russia’s total military casualties, including those killed and wounded, have exceeded 1.4 million. The United Kingdom estimated Russian casualties in August at approximately 42,000 troops—a rate of around 1,400 per day.
Shutterstock/Sergey Nikonov
Under these circumstances, the conflict could shift even more sharply toward the economic sphere this winter. Both sides will seek to inflict maximum damage on the other, increasing the risks to energy infrastructure and civilians.
The article also notes that Trump’s desire to end the war has yet to result in an agreement with Moscow. Citing intelligence information, a European diplomat expressed doubts about the Russian leadership’s willingness to pursue a peaceful settlement.
“Putin does not appear to be serious about peace,” the source told the publication.
The article’s author also believes that a deal to supply Russian diesel fuel, which could ease sanctions restrictions, risks providing Moscow with additional economic opportunities to continue the war.
Expert opinion: What could be the real interest of the United States?
Ihor Chalenko, head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, believes that the U.S. deal to purchase Russian diesel fuel may not be related to a fuel shortage, but rather to the possibility of making a profit by reselling it. Amid the easing of sanctions on Russian diesel fuel and Washington’s calls for Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, relations between Kyiv and the White House remain tense.
In an interview with Glavred, the expert noted that the United States is the world’s largest exporter of diesel fuel, accounting for nearly 20% of global exports. Therefore, the need for Russian diesel to cover domestic shortages is questionable. He speculated that the fuel might have been purchased at a discount and then resold at a higher price on the global market.
“The United States has an abundance of diesel fuel. It accounts for nearly one-fifth of global exports. Overall, I get the impression that they may have decided to buy Russian diesel at a discount and then resell it on the global market at a higher price. A ‘buy-and-sell’ scheme, so to speak. Therefore, I cannot rule out the possibility that certain individuals within Trump’s inner circle have a vested interest in this situation,” Chalenko remarked.
The expert also linked Washington’s actions to the difficulties in diplomatically resolving the conflict involving Iran. He believes Donald Trump is hesitant to launch a full-scale ground operation because of the political implications ahead of the congressional elections, while diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis have failed.
Agreement on Russian Diesel Fuel Supplies to the United States
As a reminder, on October 9, Trump announced an energy supply agreement with Putin. According to Trump, the agreement provides for Russian diesel fuel to be supplied to the American and global markets.
Zelensky reacted sharply to the U.S. decision, describing it as a clear sign of weakness in the West’s position. He argued that easing sanctions without a long-term agreement would lead to the continuation of the war.
EU High Representative Kaja Kallas stated that the European Union would not ease pressure on Russia and was preparing new restrictive measures. She announced the EU’s intention to adopt its most comprehensive sanctions package since the beginning of the war in response to the agreement between the United States and Russia.
The Trump administration hopes that the agreement to export Russian diesel fuel will help bring Moscow back to the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine. U.S. officials have acknowledged to their Ukrainian counterparts that previous attempts to launch full-scale peace negotiations have not produced the expected results.
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