Everybody screws up.
Life will humble you, and we’ve all done something, by accident or on purpose, that made us want to get on a plane and fly clear across the continent to get away from whatever mess we created.
Most of us aren’t so fortunate, but the best thing for Dan Quinn, Jayden Daniels, and the Washington Commanders, after their now-famous botching of the final seconds of overtime against the Giants, might be to hit the road.
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Of course, the worst thing for them might be the opponent waiting on the other side of the country – the undefeated San Francisco 49ers.
How does the lasting image of Quinn power-spiking his headset when the clock struck 0:00 on an unfulfilling tie affect the betting market? What about that zero in the loss column for the Niners?
San Francisco was always going to be favored in this Monday Night Football matchup, but, as always, the matter of “how much” is the crucial piece to the pricing puzzle.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 52)
It should come as no surprise that last week’s singular story would trigger a wave of bets on San Francisco, as sportsbooks are probably looking at an 80% share of tickets on the Niners.
The Commanders would like to have a do-over on the last minute of last week, but what if that game never got to that point?
After all, Washington did have a 14-point lead over the Giants, who were facing a fourth-and-8 in the rain with less than eight minutes to go in that game. Two touchdown leads don’t grow on trees in the NFL, and if that fourth down doesn’t get converted, the perception is considerably different.
The Commanders entered the season with a win total of 7.5, suggesting they were a slightly below-average team, or 47/100 in THE WINDOW’s estimated market ratings (EMR). After Daniels was hurt in Week 2, Washington was downgraded in the market, but when Daniels came back, it was never returned to that “47” level. Closing out a relatively uneventful win last week likely would have done that, creating a line under a touchdown, and perhaps some buzz for the Commanders to make a run at a NFC East that’s currently in shambles.
Instead, it was the 49ers on the right side of coaching gaffes, bad bounces and high-leverage miscues in a rivalry win in Seattle. In hindsight, San Francisco’s win is being framed as the defeat of the Super Bowl champions, but the Seahawks aren’t the same team they were last season, due to an absent run game and Sam Darnold interceptions piling up (adding two more on Thursday in Denver) at an alarming rate.
Bet the Washington Commanders to cover the spread at sportsbooks
You can only play who’s in front of you, but the 49ers have seen their rating drift to the top side of their range, and it’s asking a lot for them to play at that level coming off such a big win.
With Washington’s results, stats and metrics polluted by having played three different quarterbacks for the majority of each game just five weeks into the season, we have a point spread projection of -6, and therefore value on the dog on this side of a key number.
Bet: Commanders +7.5
Player props
Jayden Daniels over 37.5 rushing yards (-113, FanDuel)
Maybe we’re getting coaxed into something that seems too obvious because Daniels ran nine times for 103 yards last week in his return from injuring his elbow in Dallas, but he also had 69 yards on seven carries in one half on that Sunday afternoon. Without a traditional, bell-cow running back, Daniels will need to be a significant part of the run game.
The 49ers did well in their only matchup with a mobile quarterback this season, but Malik Willis doesn’t have the same big-play ability as Daniels.
The last time San Francisco defensive coordinator Raheem Morris faced Daniels, it was in the quarterback’s rookie season, and Morris had no answers then – it was the only other time the Commanders’ quarterback ran for over 100 yards. We’ll be content with 40 yards worth of scrambles on Monday night.
Stefon Diggs longest reception under 17.5 yards (-114, DraftKings)
Antonio Williams over 2.5 receptions (+145, Bet365)
For a wide receiver turning 33 this season, on his fourth team in four years, Stefon Diggs has been productive. However, nagging injuries have started to add up, and he’s questionable with a hamstring issue.
We expect Diggs to give it a go, but it’s impossible to ignore that out of his 18 receptions in four games played this season, just one of them has gone for 18 yards – and none in the last two games.
Second in both adjusted EPA/Play and Success Rate on opponent dropbacks, the 49ers defense isn’t likely to let the veteran get by them.
If Diggs isn’t able to go, that flings the door open even further for rookie Antonio Williams, whose snap share went up into the 60% range the last two weeks when first Terry McLaurin and then Diggs were out. With either four targets or three catches in every game this season, Williams is worth a look here at plus-money.
Brock Purdy over 21.5 completions (+102, DraftKings)
The 49ers’ quarterback is firmly in the MVP conversation, but since Week 1 the only thing Brock Purdy hasn’t faced is a thoroughly mediocre defense. It’s either been too easy (Cardinals, Dolphins), or pretty tough (Broncos, Seahawks). The former allowed for low volume because of big gains and a lack of offensive pressure in a blowout, and the latter required keeping things closer to the vest.
The Commanders defense has actually improved this season, but it’s still quite vulnerable through the air. With Daniels able to score enough to keep the pressure on, we’ll bet on Brock to keep things moving down the field in smaller increments.
Anytime TD scorers
Austin Ekeler (+340, DraftKings)
With Jacory Croskey-Merritt out this week, the Commanders’ backfield setup is in flux. Even Jeremy McNichols could be in play, if he makes his season debut. However, Austin Ekeler wasn’t added back two weeks ago not to touch the ball.
The long-time veteran running back has played 23 total snaps and has been handed the ball, or thrown to, on 10 of them.
Rachaad White’s never profiled as the bowling-ball type at the goal line, so between Ekeler’s 43 career rushing touchdowns and 30 receiving, he’s a pretty good guess at who might get the looks near the goal line for the Commanders.
Treylon Burks (+650, FanDuel)
Speaking of football’s version of the designated hitter, the Commanders’ biggest (literal) red zone threat is the 6-foot-2, 225-pound Treylon Burks. Of his five receptions this season, two have been for touchdowns. With Diggs potentially slowed, and things yet to click with Chig Okonkwo in the same way for Daniels, Burks at a long shot price is never a bad idea.
George Kittle (+110, DraftKings)
Speaking of tight ends who score touchdowns … Kittle was held out of the end zone last week, when Purdy found a mismatch in the form of Mike Evans against Seattle’s secondary. That snapped a three-game scoring streak, where Kittle had four touchdowns, after easing his way back after Achilles surgery (playing in less than 50% of snaps in the first two games).
Only the Lions have allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Commanders.
Kaelon Black (+410, FanDuel)
The rookie running back hasn’t scored yet this season, despite 37 carries. With just one reception (in Week 1), Kaelon Black isn’t a versatile weapon in the Niners’ offense. That’s Christian McCaffrey.
Deebo Samuel is out for this game, so, if there’s someone to take more of his role — runner/receiver, lots of motion, etc. — it could be McCaffrey as the distraction in the backfield, while Black runs right at the Commanders. With seven red-zone touches this season, the Hoosier has experienced getting the ball near the goal line, and he might finally get to experience crossing it.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.