MiniLED Shipments Plunge As OLED Gains in Premium Laptops

MiniLED losing ground in premium laptops. As the transition to OLED (organic light-emitting diode) accelerates in the premium laptop market, shipments of existing mini-LED (light-emitting diode) panels are expected to plummet by 75% in two years. With major manufacturers such as Apple expanding their adoption of OLED, expectations are growing for Samsung Display, which preemptively built an 8.6-generation production line, to secure market leadership, while attention is focused on whether LG Display can secure competitiveness by leveraging its next-generation process technology. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research on Oct. 20, global shipments of mini-LED panels for laptops are expected to decrease by 38% this year compared to last year. Next year, they are expected to further decrease by 60% compared to this year. If the estimates hold true, shipments in 2027 will remain at just 24.8% of the 2025 level. On the other hand, OLED panel shipments for laptops are projected to increase by 50% this year and 24% next year. This is in contrast to the expectation that overall laptop display shipments will decrease by 3% this year. Differences in panel structure and manufacturing costs are driving this change. Mini-LEDs improve image quality by precisely controlling small light sources behind the LCD, but they require a separate backlight. In contrast, OLED pixels emit their own light, making them advantageous for implementing thin panels. As OLED production efficiency improves, the price burden has also been lowered, leading to increased adoption by laptop manufacturers. A representative example is Apple’s next-generation MacBook Pro. While Apple is expected to adopt OLED instead of the existing mini-LED, observations suggest that Samsung Display will exclusively handle the initial panel supply. If Samsung Display handles the initial supply, it can first secure the new demand resulting from the premium laptop market’s transition to OLED. Samsung Display began mass production last July at its 8.6-generation IT (information technology) OLED production line in Asan, South Chungcheong Province, in which it invested 4.1 trillion won (about $3.08 billion). By using a larger substrate than the existing 6th generation, it can more efficiently produce laptop panels with a wider area. However, for the improvement in production efficiency to lead to actual cost reduction, it must be supported by sufficient order volume and stable yields. Securing Apple’s initial volume is important in that it establishes the demand base necessary to increase the utilization rate of the new production line and recover investment costs. LG Display is pushing to expand supply based on its existing IT OLED business. If Samsung Display exclusively supplies the initial volume of the next-generation MacBook Pro, the initial benefits from Apple’s OLED transition will inevitably be limited for LG Display. LG Display is promoting a plan to lower manufacturing costs by developing FLiPP, a next-generation patterning technology that does not use fine metal masks (FMM). Although it is a strategy to reduce the investment burden by utilizing existing production infrastructure, the related industry believes it will take time to lead to cost reduction and new orders as the mass production schedule has not yet been confirmed. A display industry official said, “As the transition to OLED accelerates in the premium laptop market, it becomes important not only to lower production costs but also to stably secure client volumes,” adding, “Samsung Display has equipped itself with preemptive facility investments and an initial supply base, but the future competitive landscape may change depending on each company’s yield and the actual speed of supply expansion.”