The following is an adapted version of an article written by Réka Csepeli, a research fellow at the Europe Strategy Institute of the University of Public Service, originally published in Hungarian on the Five Minutes Europe blog of Ludovika.hu.
Hungarian Prime Minister’s Visit to Pope Leo XIV. The Head of the Catholic Church in France. In recent weeks, the Vatican has once again taken centre stage as a spiritual, geopolitical, and diplomatic force. But in a Europe where, according to statistics, the number of believers is steadily declining, how exactly do the messages of the head of the Catholic Church reach their audience, and whom do they address? This brief analysis seeks to answer that question—though, of course, it does not claim to be exhaustive.
Globally, according to 2023 data, Catholics number 1.4 billion, representing 17.8 per cent of the world’s 7.9 billion population. This figure shows an increase from the previous year, with 15,881,000 more Catholics than the year before. Catholic growth is evident on all five continents, including Europe, where the downward trend seen in previous censuses—which showed a decline in the number of Catholics in 2022 compared to 2021—has reversed. Among EU member states, the largest Catholic populations are found in Italy (46–53 million), France (37–48 million), and Poland (33–38 million). At the same time, we must distinguish between those who identify as Catholic and those who actually practice their faith.
The Pope as a Global Geopolitical Actor
The encyclical Magnifica Humanitas, published in May of this year—which effectively revitalizes the Holy See’s social mission and urges the regulation of artificial intelligence, which potentially threatens our entire civilization—has positioned Pope Leo XIV as a key global figure through its significance and widespread impact. Following in the footsteps of his predecessor, Pope Francis—who was extremely popular and communicated his mission to the masses in a way perhaps never or rarely seen before—the new summus pontifex initially appeared reserved. However, his statements regarding President Trump—in which he called for ‘deep reflection’ on how migrants are treated in the United States—already hint at Pope Leo’s resolve to the greatest moral challenges of our time. Indeed, such criticism—delivered in English, too—from the first pope born in the United States can and should clearly be interpreted as a geopolitical event.
The head of the Catholic Church has no military force, no commercial influence, and does not participate in G20 meetings. Yet his words transcend borders, are cited in negotiations, and often shape public opinion. Nevertheless, it is worth noting—and worth highlighting—that every statement the Holy Father makes, every interaction he has with politicians, and every visit he makes also provokes numerous, often vehement reactions. Perhaps this is precisely because the majority of people living in ‘our Western societies’ no longer identify as religious—at least not as Catholic—and, consequently, do not feel particularly addressed by the ideas expressed by the head of the Catholic Church. At the same time, this is somewhat contradicted by the special attention to events involving the Pope. In fact, this may reflect respect for the appearance of some universal, higher moral authority. This phenomenon can be closely linked to the fact that, in this unbridled world we live in—largely devoid of moral norms—we need moral reference points, points of connection and comparison that can show us the way amid the chaos. Moreover, since we are dealing here with the statements and connections of a supreme moral authority par excellence, the political figures involved strive to use these to present their own image in the most positive light possible.
‘We need moral reference points, points of connection and comparison that can show us the way amid the chaos’
At a time when the international order is fragmented, papal diplomacy emerges as a diplomacy of patience: it relies on symbols, listening, mediation, and a moral authority that is hard to quantify but can sometimes be decisive. The paradox remains: how can spiritual pronouncements transform into concrete political influence without getting entangled in power struggles? This delicate balance between principles and reality illuminates the pope’s role in global debates. The strict separation of church and state is a fundamental prerequisite of every modern democracy. However, not every country understands this same thing under this lofty (and, of course, fundamentally important) principle. Different European nations interpret secularization in different ways. Some versions emphasize the state’s ideological neutrality, equality of religious denominations, and freedom of religion; others advocate for a broader exclusion of religious symbols and institutional influence from the public sphere.
Papal Visit to France
In the ‘home of secularism (laïcité)’, the immense enthusiasm with which the French—and especially young people—have welcomed Pope Leo XIV in recent days may seem surprising at first glance. Historically, in a country often referred to as the ‘little daughter of the Church’ (petite fille de l’église), the papal visit was preceded by large-scale preparations (including a dedicated website where the Holy Father’s itinerary and speeches could be followed live).
President Emmanuel Macron, who will step down in a few months—in a move that is, from a political communications perspective, somewhat understandable—sought to polish his own image by capitalizing on the papal visit, dubbed ‘historic’. However, during his historic visit to Paris, Lourdes, and Metz between 25 and 28 September, Pope Leo XIV rejected several of the president’s proposals, thereby making it clear that the Vatican intends to draw a sharp line between the ecclesiastical and secular spheres.
The President of the Republic had envisioned welcoming the Pope as part of a state visit. Rome, in contrast, opted for an apostolic approach focused on the faithful. Emmanuel Macron therefore hoped to use this visit to bolster his standing and secure a prestigious diplomatic opportunity. However, the Vatican rejected several French proposals: a visit by the Republican Guard, a military review, a parade on the Champs-Élysées, a dinner at the Élysée Palace, and a private meeting at Notre-Dame Cathedral. These decisions by the Vatican are attributed to tensions surrounding the euthanasia law passed by the French National Assembly on 18 August, as well as to French secularism and the government’s immigration policy. Although President Macron did not attend the Mass celebrated at Notre-Dame in Paris, he attended the service in Metz on Monday, drawing sharp criticism from secularist political parties and the public. Last Saturday, 800,000 believers attended the Mass Pope Leo XIV celebrated at the Place de la Concorde in Paris. By comparison, 260,000 faithful gathered for Pope Benedict XVI’s Mass at the Cathedral of Saint-Louis-des-Invalides in 2008, while one million people attended the World Youth Day Mass in Longchamp in 1997.
It is also clear, however, that beyond the religious sphere, the event mobilized the French state in a significant diplomatic ‘soft power’ operation. The papal visit, which had a budget of 27 million euros, thus transcended the religious sphere: it became a strategic tool of international influence, in which Paris deployed significant security and logistical resources, thereby strengthening its global position.
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