Overall, 10.5 per cent of UK study visa applications were withdrawn in the first six months of 2026, compared with 2.3 per cent a year earlier and 0.4 per cent in 2023.
Why are universities cancelling offers?
Under the new rules, universities risk losing permission to recruit international students if more than 5 per cent of applicants they sponsor have their visas rejected. The earlier limit was 10 per cent.
Students can apply for a UK study visa only after receiving a university offer. If the offer is cancelled, the visa application is also withdrawn.
The number of study visa refusals doubled in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year.
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Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh see sharp rise
Pakistan's withdrawal rate jumped from 3 per cent to 40.9 per cent, while Nigeria's increased from 4.5 per cent to 22.7 per cent. Bangladesh also recorded a sharp rise, from 7.1 per cent to 23.5 per cent.
Around 15 UK universities are believed to have stopped recruiting students from Pakistan entirely this year, according to figures from the higher education sector.
What does this mean for Indian students?
Despite the increase in withdrawals among Indian applicants, universities may focus more on India and China, where visa refusal rates remain lower.
Professor Steven McGuire, deputy vice-chancellor of the University of East Anglia, said the policy was pushing universities to “double down on China and India”.
Data from Enroly, a company that processes visa applications, suggests that refusal rates at almost half of UK universities are already above the new 5 per cent threshold.
Universities warn of job losses
Universities fear that falling international student numbers will affect their finances and force job cuts and course closures.
Vanessa Wilson, chief executive of University Alliance, warned, “This is going to result in restructures, which inevitably results in job losses, course closures, campus closures.”
The UK Home Office said international students “make a positive contribution” but added that “this must not be at the expense of recruiting responsibly, in turn protecting the integrity of our immigration system”.