You can believe in projections or not, but it will be difficult for Hayden Wesneski to sustain his latest version of 2026 as a full-time starter should he manage to earn a spot in the Houston Astros’ rotation for 2027.
During his last seven starts, he posted a 4-1 record with a 2.11 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and allowed only two home runs against the 151 batters he faced. The Astros won five of those seven decisions at a key point in the campaign, when the team was battling to reach the playoffs.
It is not impossible for Wesneski to become the next Peter Lambert, his mix would have to be too dominant to survive with a rate of just 6.6 K/9 and only 2.15 K/BB.
Look, this isn't about being too skeptical; it's about objectivity. There were 46 qualified pitchers in the league during the 2026 regular season, and only three of them finished in a range below 2.15 K/BB.
All of them struck out more batters than Wesneski, accumulated at least 162 innings, and none recorded a FIP below 4.69. They were Merrill Kelly (5.32 FIP, 1.61 K/BB), Robbie Ray (4.69 FIP, 1.67 K/BB), and Andrew Abbott (4.93 FIP, 1.72 K/BB).
What Can Be Expected From Wesneski in 2027?
Wesneski’s recent injury history makes his stability less sustainable, as he has never made more than 11 starts or thrown 100 innings in his entire career.
The most innings he recorded in a single season were 89 ⅓ innings when he posted a 3-5 record and 4.36 ERA with the Chicago Cubs in 2023, making 11 starts and 23 relief appearances. Two seasons later, in May 2025, Wesneski underwent Tommy John surgery, so the drop in velocity on four of his pitches — the cutter was the only one that improved, by 1.4 mph — led him to change his repertoire and look for a new pitch mix.
The best development in his new strategy was the presence of the changeup, which in the past had been a pitch without a prominent role in his arsenal.
Given the loss of velocity, it was reasonable for Wesneski to look for a new formula by mixing his secondary pitches. Thus, the changeup went from a 3.0% usage rate to 11.9%, generating an interesting improvement in O-Swing from 20.0% in the 2024 season, his most recent year with a higher workload, to 35.6%.
The progress led him to trust it more and more, and he finished the campaign with a 22.2 K%, a result incomparable to those of 2024, when he did not manage to record a strikeout with the changeup.
With lower velocity on all his pitches, it was no surprise that batters increased their swing rates against Wesneski, so the work of the sinker and his sweeper were fundamental.
Now, there were two interesting points here. The sinker, as it used to be early in his career when he threw it 23.4% of the time in 2022, became more frequently used (from 11.0% in 2025 to 18.9%) than the fastball and cutter, offering better vertical movement and a better contrast in the new mix alongside the sweeper and changeup.
But if we were guided by the slight drop in opponents’ OPS, from .879 in 2024 to .769 this year, we would miss the best part of his progress, as Wesneski had fine command that reduced his Barrel rate from 14.3% to 0.0%.
Although the improvements with the sinker and changeup were encouraging, Wesneski remains dependent on the sweeper, without a doubt his best weapon.
He left the league at just a 2.9 Barrel%, did not allow home runs, and reduced OPS from .588 to .413. His 35.5% strikeout rate was slightly below his career average with the sweeper (40.5%), but it maintained its impact, standing out as the main weapon in six of the 13 games in which he managed at least two strikeouts with a single pitch.
In fact, in his last start against the Athletics in Sacramento on September 26, Wesneski used it 32.9% of the time and left his opponents with 1-for-8 and four strikeouts.
Throughout the season, the sweeper ended up generating the second-highest whiff rate of his entire career, at 37.6%, trailing only his 2024 season (43.3%). He now throws it at a lower average velocity (81.5 mph), but the Spin is at its highest point, at 2774.
For a rotation full of problems and uncertainty, Wesneski may be an unknown when it comes to long-term projections about whether or not he can repeat the best of his 2026 performance, but he definitely offered more stability and dominance than Mike Burrows, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, Kai-Wei Teng, and Ronel Blanco, who combined for 59 starts and -0.4 fWAR.
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