The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, could become “redundant” within five years as Gulf nations invest in alternative pipelines, ports and logistics networks, HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery said on Tuesday, according to Reuters.
The Iran war has exposed the risks of relying on the narrow waterway for energy exports, prompting regional governments to explore routes that can transport crude oil to international markets without passing through the strait.
“We do see this region being able to recover and then continue growing. It will mean a lot of investment,” Elhedery said at the HSBC Future Forum in Dubai.
“Of course, we do wish and hope to see a resolution to the conflict ... But Hormuz, probably in five years' time, may become redundant,” he added, according to Reuters.
Alternatives to Hormuz are not entirely new. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) already operate crude oil pipelines that bypass the strait. The bigger question is whether expanding these routes and building new infrastructure can significantly reduce the Gulf's dependence on the waterway.
Diversifying supply routes could help reduce some of these risks.
1. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline: From the Gulf to the Red Sea
Route: Abqaiq in eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, also known as Petroline, is one of the most significant existing alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.
The pipeline transports crude oil from processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia across the Arabian Peninsula to Yanbu. From there, oil can be loaded onto tankers and shipped to international markets without passing through Hormuz.
The pipeline gives Saudi Arabia the option of redirecting substantial volumes of crude towards the Red Sea, reducing its reliance on shipping lanes inside the Persian Gulf.
Red Sea shipping also faces security risks due to the Iran-aligned Houthis.
2. UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline: Bypassing the strait
Route: Habshan in Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
The UAE has another major alternative in the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, also known as ADCOP.
The approximately 400-km pipeline connects onshore oil facilities at Habshan with Fujairah, which lies outside the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline has a reported capacity of around 1.8 million barrels per day, as per reports.
The UAE already uses this route to export crude.
Fujairah allows the UAE to load crude onto tankers without sending them through Hormuz. Expanding pipeline capacity, storage facilities and port infrastructure could help the country maintain exports during future disruptions.
3. More pipelines, ports and logistics infrastructure
Beyond existing pipelines, Gulf countries could invest in additional pipeline capacity, export terminals, storage facilities and transport links connecting oil-producing regions with ports outside the strait.
The objective would be to build greater redundancy into regional energy supply chains.
New routes would also need to be commercially viable and capable of handling large volumes reliably.
4. Can IMEC offer an alternative to Hormuz?
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023, is another connectivity initiative attracting attention amid instability in the Middle East.
The proposed corridor aims to connect India with the Gulf and Europe through an integrated network of shipping routes, ports, railways and other infrastructure. Its broader objective is to improve trade and logistics connectivity between the three regions.
The ongoing crises in the Middle East, including the Gaza war, tensions involving Iran and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, have strengthened the case for more resilient trade routes, according to Gérard Mestrallet, special envoy of the French president for IMEC.
“The difficulties — October 7, Gaza, Iran, Hormuz — have even increased the necessity to have a resilient corridor, offering several possibilities to the market,” Mestrallet said.
For India, IMEC's potential lies in strengthening connectivity with Gulf markets and Europe.
However, it is a proposed multimodal trade corridor, not an operational crude oil pipeline designed to carry the volumes currently shipped through the strait.
Can these alternatives really make Hormuz redundant?
Existing pipeline alternatives offer a way to redirect some crude oil exports, but they cannot yet replicate the scale of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The IEA estimates that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have a combined 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day of potential capacity on alternative routes that could bypass the strait. This compares with approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil shipments that passed through Hormuz in 2025.
The agency has also cautioned that the logistics required to reroute and export large volumes have not been robustly tested.
There is another important limitation: bypass pipelines primarily address crude oil exports. They do not automatically provide an alternative for all LNG shipments passing through Hormuz, including supplies from Qatar. Gas exports require specialised infrastructure.
Additional pipelines and export terminals could provide valuable flexibility during a crisis, but the scale of investment required to replicate its role remains substantial, making it unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz can be rendered entirely redundant in the near future.
With inputs from Reuters.