After the most violent riots France has known in years, followed by further violence and looting in Paris on Sunday evening, the concern in European capitals, including London, is palpable. What began as peaceful protests by French secondary school pupils demanding better conditions descended into destruction, arson and chaos, with extreme violence directed at institutions, public buildings, shops and anyone attempting to intervene. Similar unrest has erupted in Belgium and Italy, though the violence there has not reached the same intensity as in France. Is it only a matter of time?
Many European countries face similar problems: a rising cost of living, fuelled in part by higher energy prices amid the war between Iran and the US; the threat of conflict with Russia; AI’s impact on the jobs market; demographic decline; and, perhaps most importantly, unsustainable public debt.
For Britain, the stakes could barely be higher. Should France turn inwards under a far-right president after its elections in April, any attempt to reset relations with the European Union would be considerably harder, complicating Andy Burnham’s ambitions to move closer to the EU. This could also leave Britain more isolated in its support for Ukraine, just as European security faces mounting threats. Britain may have left the EU, but it cannot insulate itself from a continent coming apart.
France’s public debt has reached 119 per cent of GDP, while its budget deficit remains stubbornly high. The insurrectional atmosphere of recent days will hardly reassure its partners and financial markets. Investors with French government bonds, more than half of which are held abroad, are growing increasingly alarmed about a seemingly ungovernable country that is unable to rein in public spending.
Yet protesters in France want more subsidies, more money, more investment. For once, the state’s only realistic option may be to manage what it already spends more effectively. French public spending stands at 57 per cent of GDP, among the highest in the OECD. Despite successive attempts at pension reform, the French remain deeply attached to retiring at around 62, roughly five years earlier than their closest neighbours. The country faces a difficult reckoning with what it can afford, a reality many voters are reluctant to confront.
Add into the equation the presidential elections due in April 2027 and the recipe for disaster becomes even more alarming. Poll after poll puts far-right candidate Marine Le Pen firmly in the lead, with hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon as her expected rival in the second round. The prospect of a run-off between the two would pit rival forms of populism against each other. Both promise to “tax the rich”, increase public spending and even lower the retirement age and, for Mélenchon, “cancel French debt held by the European Central Bank”. Both are pro-Russian and both thrive on popular anger and resentment at the existing political order.
Their differences lie mostly in what they consider national identity to be. Le Pen promises law and order while Mélenchon presents himself as the champion of a radical break with “the system” – of which he is a pure product, having entered politics as a senator at the age of 35.
Neither offers an easy answer to France’s predicament.
French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu and interior minister Laurent Nuñez have pointed to the involvement of radical left groups and organised, quasi-military-style commandos in the weekend’s violence. The rioters targeted prefectures, town halls and police stations while tens of thousands of looters added to the destruction and chaos.
What is happening in France may herald a dark chapter for Europe as a whole, with urban unrest, economic and financial crisis followed by a far-right victory at the ballot box. We have seen elements of this pattern elsewhere in Europe, but France is not Hungary. As one of the EU’s founding members, and one of its two biggest powers, France could trigger a domino effect across the continent. Germany, too, faces serious political challenges: a surge in nationalism with the rise of the far-right AfD party and an impotent government. It may only be a matter of time before political fragmentation deepens there.
A France governed by the far right would put European and British support for Ukraine under severe strain. Le Pen has already warned that she would limit French assistance to Kyiv and pursue an independent line towards Russia. The European consensus on Ukraine could fracture, weakening the continent’s ability to defend itself and act collectively.
As the French editorialist Luc de Barochez has written: “The sovereignty of each European state depends on its collective ability to exert influence by acting together, not on going it alone.”
This is a European crisis. France has become its epicentre.