A graduate in German, Jake has a passion for history and regional aviation, and enjoys sampling new carriers and aircraft. He has visited OEM facilities as far and wide as Bristol, Toulouse, and Seattle, and recently enjoyed the milestone of flying his 150th sector as a passenger. Based in Norfolk, UK.
European aircraft manufacturer Airbus revealed today at a press conference in Toulouse that it forecasts significant growth in the aviation services market in the coming two decades. Specifically, the planemaker says that this sector is set to double in size between 2026 and 2045, as the global fleet exceeds 45,000 aircraft. This forecast is based on an average 3.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
As the industry and its fleet grow, so will passenger numbers, which are also expected to double, exceeding 10 billion a year by 2045. Of course, this will require corresponding growth in the worldwide commercial aviation workforce, with close to 2.5 million cabin crew, pilots, and maintenance technicians expected to be required in the coming two decades. Airbus's forecast features six key growth pillars.
Crunching The Numbers
Let's start by outlining the figures that back up Airbus's impressive growth forecast. All in all, the firm expects the aviation services market to "reach an estimated value of more than US$420 billion by 2045" as demand for this sector doubles. By then, it believes that the global aircraft fleet will have grown to around 45,500 planes, with another 1.05 million flight attendants required to support this growth.
Elsewhere, Airbus also forecasts a cumulative need for 660,000 more pilots and another 730,000 maintenance technicians, with total demand across all roles exceeding "2.44 million additional skilled people." Cristina Aguilar Grieder, the SVP of Customer Services & Commercial Aircraft at Airbus, said that "Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers," adding that:
"By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernisation, and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety, and long-term operational excellence."
Six Key Pillars Of Growth
Diving deeper into Airbus's growth forecast, the planemaker has highlighted six key sectors that will contribute to the overall growth in the aviation services market over the coming two decades. Training is one such pillar, with this sector expected to be valued at £17 billion and backed by a 3.1% CAGR. On this front, Airbus' Amaya Rodriguez Gonzalez said that pilots' simulator hours are set to double.
The most valuable sector is set to be off-wing maintenance. Supported by a 3.7% CAGR, this segment is set to double in value to $217 billion by 2045. Airbus cites "an increasing number of shop visits due to aging and growing global fleet" as a key factor on this front. A related aviation sector is maintenance operations support, which is projected to be valued at $104 billion with a 4.3% CAGR by 2045.
Elsewhere in the maintenance market, on-wing maintenance will play a smaller role, with a projected value of $36 billion by 2045. Away from this side of things, digital connectivity is the fastest-growing market, with a projected CAGR of 5.3% as it triples in value to $27 billion by 2045. Last but not least, Airbus's sixth pillar is modifications and upgrades, with this sector set to be valued at $21 billion by 2045.
Digital Solutions Will Be The Backbone Of This Growth
With every passing day, our world becomes more digital and interconnected, and Airbus is leaning into this unstoppable tide when it comes to its future growth forecasts. The firm says that "digital solutions and connectivity underpin all sectors of the services market, supporting airlines to improve operational efficiency, reduce disruptions such as delays and cancellations, [and] maintenance agility."
Airbus also highlights the growing importance of real-time connectivity, which it says will help airlines "to meet passenger expectations for a seamless journey." Of course, such systems are not perfect, with the firm noting that, in 2025 alone, disruptions caused the airline sector to lose $43 billion. While these losses could reach $80 billion by 2045, improvements in digital connectivity should cut 30% of this total.