So far, Sadiq Khan’s only transport achievements have been to cut the ribbon on new projects that his predecessors started, writes James Ford
In recent weeks there has been a flurry of activity regarding London’s pipeline of proposed new transport infrastructure projects. Transport for London (TfL) is finally running a public consultation on the West London Orbital rail project. A laundry list of transport projects has been touted in the Evening Standard, presumably with TfL’s connivance. And the results of a previous consultation on the DLR extension to Thamesmead have been made public, showing significant popular support. Should we conclude that London is finally getting the infrastructure it needs? Of course not.
Rather than a feeling of excitement about new lines and new stations, the correct response you should have is a profound sense of déjà vu. The four grands projets at the top of TfL’s pipeline – Crossrail 2, the West London Orbital, the DLR extension and the Bakerloo Line extension – have all been on TfL’s to-do list since well before 2016, when this Mayor assumed office. Worse still, the biggest project (Crossrail 2) has been mothballed since November 2020. The earliest that it could open is the 2050s.
The sad truth is that this ‘new’ activity is all stuff that a good Mayor of London would have done in their first year in office, not their tenth. And, if you somehow forgot to start campaigning for all this investment and infrastructure in your first year (or even your first term), then Sadiq Khan had a rare second chance to set the ball rolling in the summer of 2022 when the Elizabeth Line opened. In that moment London swooned with excitement about how this Tube line had delivered beautiful stations, faster journey times and new connections. Londoners flocked to the new line in huge numbers and TfL’s coffers overflowed with extra fares income. That would have been a good time to announce that London’s next big project – whichever one it was – had got the green light.
But no, it seems that City Hall and TfL are only now slowly creaking into gear to deliver the infrastructure that London needed in 2016. This decade of delay means that these projects are all set to cost more to build. In 2016, Crossrail 2 was set to cost £32.6bn. By 2019 costs had spiralled to $41.3bn. Now it is thought to cost an estimated £45bn. Between 2020 and 2026 alone the cost of the DLR extension doubled.
What has Sadiq Khan achieved in transport?
In the decade since 2016, the economic and political situation has deteriorated. The government’s focus is on the north, not London. It has signalled support for the £45bn Northern Powerhouse Rail scheme but has so far refused to commit to chip in towards the £1.7bn cost of the DLR extension. At the same time, TfL’s ability to fund this project from its own funds has declined. TfL was carrying debt of £9.1bn in 2016 but £13.9bn in 2026, making it currently the most indebted local authority body in the UK. The second most indebted local authority in the UK? Well, that’s City Hall of course, with £4.7bn of debt.
So far, Khan’s only transport achievements have been to cut the ribbon on new projects that his predecessors started. The Elizabeth Line was approved under Ken Livingstone in 2007 and broke ground under Boris Johnson in 2009. The Northern Line extension to Battersea was greenlit two years before Khan was elected. And Boris also approved the Overground extension to Barking Riverside a few months before he left office.
I, for one, am glad that these vital infrastructure projects are no longer stuck in limbo. But we do have to reflect on what this lost decade has cost London. This sudden, dramatic burst of activity by City Hall and TfL may seem like progress but it is a sad, desperate race for a meaningful legacy from a mayor that is all too aware he is running out of time.
James Ford was an advisor to former Mayor of London Boris Johnson