Nigeria’s money market is expected to receive approximately N2.499 trillion in inflows during the week beginning October 12, 2026, with maturing Open Market Operations (OMO) bills accounting for nearly all the projected funds, following a 23.68% decline in banking system liquidity.
This is according to the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) weekly report dated October 12, 2026, which reviewed market developments through October 9 and outlined expected inflows for the coming week.
The projected inflows are 13.1% below the N2.877 trillion estimated for the preceding week, while banking system liquidity declined to N3.71 trillion from approximately N4.86 trillion.
OMO Maturities dominate expected inflows:
OMO maturities are expected to provide N2.409 trillion during the week, representing approximately 96.4% of the projected N2.499 trillion in total money-market inflows. This is higher than the N2.168 trillion in OMO maturities recorded in the preceding week.
- However, the increase in OMO maturities is offset by a substantial decline in expected Treasury bill maturities, resulting in a lower overall inflow projection.
- Treasury bill maturities are projected at N80.84 billion, compared with N705.73 billion in the previous week.
- Corporate bond coupon payments are expected to reach N4.33 billion, up from N2.82 billion.
- Commercial paper maturities are projected at N4.49 billion, compared with N0.13 billion previously.
- The previous week included N10.09 billion in corporate bond maturities, while no such maturities are projected for this week.
The N2.499 trillion projection represents potential gross liquidity injections from scheduled maturities and payments, rather than a forecast of the amount that will ultimately remain in the banking system.
CBN auctions drain banking liquidity:
Banking system liquidity declined 23.68% to N3.71 trillion in the week ended October 9, from approximately N4.86 trillion in the preceding week, representing a reduction of about N1.15 trillion.
- The decline occurred alongside substantial liquidity withdrawals through CBN Open Market Operations (OMO) auctions and Treasury bill issuance.
- The CBN sold N3.31 trillion in OMO instruments against N2.17 trillion in maturities, implying net absorption of approximately N1.14 trillion.
- The Debt Management Office allotted N968.47 billion in Treasury bills against N705.73 billion in maturities, implying net absorption of N262.74 billion.
- Together, the two operations imply approximately N1.40 trillion in net withdrawals, although this does not equal the reported N1.15 trillion decline in overall system liquidity.
The average Treasury bill yield increased 30 basis points to 18.16%, while the average Federal Government bond yield rose approximately 25 basis points to 16.06%.
CBN decisions shape liquidity outlook:
The outlook for the week beginning October 12 will depend largely on how the CBN manages the N2.409 trillion in expected OMO maturities. Fresh OMO auctions could absorb part of the funds, limiting their impact on banking system liquidity and short-term interest rates.
- FMDA had earlier projected total money-market inflows of N13.25 trillion for October, down 14.82% from N15.556 trillion in September.
- October OMO maturities were projected at N9.051 trillion, accounting for the largest component of the monthly inflow forecast.
- CBN OMO sales reached N17.51 trillion in September, demonstrating the scale of liquidity management operations.
- If the CBN absorbs most of the expected maturities through fresh auctions, funding conditions could remain tight and short-term yields elevated.
However, if a larger proportion of the inflows remains within the banking system, liquidity conditions could improve and short-term yields may ease.
The projected N2.499 trillion inflow therefore provides potential liquidity support, but the actual effect will depend on subsequent monetary operations and other market flows.