The outcome of the November 3 midterm elections in the United States could determine the success or failure of President Donald Trump’s final two years in office, as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress from his Republican Party.
According to BBC News on Tuesday, both chambers of Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate, are currently controlled by Republicans, and the elections will determine whether the party retains its hold on the legislature.
In its report, titled “Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost,” the BBC said, “The success or failure of Trump’s final two years in office could rest on the outcome.”
The broadcaster noted that thousands of races would take place across the country at different levels of government, but the main focus for voters would be electing members of the House and Senate.
Key states that could decide control of Congress
According to BBC News, Democrats are targeting states that Republicans have won consistently in recent years as they seek to take control of both chambers.
In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are up for election because members serve two-year terms. The Republican majority is narrow, with 218 representatives, the number required for control, alongside an independent who votes with the party.
The BBC cited the Cook Political Report as identifying 21 House districts as toss-ups, meaning either party could win them.
Of those districts, 15 are currently held by Republicans and six by Democrats.
The report said Democrats would need to win five of the Republican-held toss-up districts, in addition to 28 districts classified as likely or leaning Democratic, to secure the House.
The Senate presents a different challenge.
Republicans hold 53 of the 100 seats, while Democrats have 45 and two independents who vote with them.
Thirty-five Senate seats will be contested in November, with seven races classified as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.
Six of those seats are currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats.
According to the BBC, Democrats would need to win four of the toss-up seats, alongside the four seats classified as likely or leaning Democratic, to reach 51 seats and take control of the Senate.
The broadcaster identified Michigan as a state Democrats would need to retain, noting that the contest between Abdul El-Sayed and Republican rival Mike Rogers was tighter than Democrats would like.
It also highlighted Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, where Democrats would need to win seats in states Trump carried by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.
In Texas, former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general and a Trump ally, the report said.
Trump’s approval rating, the midterms
BBC News reported that Trump’s approval rating had fallen since the beginning of his second term, citing polling resource website Silver Bulletin.
According to the report, Trump began his second term with an approval rating of just over 50 per cent, but it subsequently fell into the 40s and currently stands at about 37 per cent.
The broadcaster said his approval rating was around 42 per cent when he launched air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February, before falling below 40 per cent shortly afterwards.
It also compared Trump’s approval rating with those of former presidents at similar points in their first terms.
Trump had a rating of 43 per cent eight years ago, while Joe Biden’s stood at 40 per cent at the same point in his term.
In both cases, the sitting president’s party lost control of the House in the midterm elections but retained the Senate, according to the report.
The BBC said Trump’s ratings help explain why Democrats are hopeful of winning both chambers and are targeting states where Republicans have performed consistently well in recent years.
Cost of living among key issues
The cost of living is proving to be a major issue for voters ahead of the elections, according to BBC News.
The report recalled Trump’s 2024 campaign pledge to “end inflation and make America affordable again”, noting that rising fuel prices following the outbreak of the war with Iran had affected American consumers.
Trump had declared during his State of the Union address on February 24 that petrol was “now below $2.30 [£1.74] a gallon in most states”.
The war began four days later, disrupting Middle Eastern energy supplies and pushing US petrol prices to $4 (£3.03) a gallon, the broadcaster reported.
The report also identified healthcare and immigration as important issues for voters.
It said many Democratic candidates were focusing on the high cost of US health insurance and the impact of Trump’s legislation on access to healthcare, while Trump had promoted his immigration policies as a success, citing lower border-crossing figures.
Republicans hold financial advantage
Despite the challenges facing Republicans, BBC News reported that the party had a significant financial advantage over Democrats.
At the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had more than $600m in cash, compared with just under $400m held by Democrats.
The Republicans also had more than $400m held by Trump’s MAGA Inc group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the Make America Great Again political movement, according to the report.
The BBC cited research firm AdImpact as saying that more than $1bn worth of political advertisements had been broadcast to US voters in September.
Republicans spent $200m more than Democrats and outspent them in nearly all the Senate races classified as toss-ups, the broadcaster reported.
Trump will be hoping the late advertising campaign helps mobilise Republican voters in November, the report said.
The BBC added that attention would turn to the 2028 presidential election after the midterms, noting that Trump is constitutionally unable to run for a third term.