CAS issuance across Enroly’s UK university partner network fell 23.7% for the September 2026 intake, while acceptances were down a more moderate 13.8%.
The gap points to an increasingly significant conversion problem: just 57.2% of accepted students progressed to CAS, compared with 76.0% last year.
Visa refusals were up 43.5% year-on-year, accelerating from the 30% increase recorded in Enroly’s previous briefing.
Speaking to The PIE News, Catherine Winter, group CEO of Enroly and Ecctis, said this intake “presents a varied picture, with growth in some markets and subject areas alongside significant pressure in others”.
| Metric | Year-on-year change (September 2026) |
| Acceptances | -13.8% |
| CAS issued | -23.7% |
| Acceptance-to-CAS conversion rate | 57.2% (vs 76.0% last year) |
| Visa refusals | +43.5% |
Across all nationalities, 4.5% of students who had reached a visa outcome were refused, compared with 3.7% when refusals are measured against all CAS issued.
Enroly considers the former the more accurate indication of refusal risk because not every CAS holder has yet received a visa decision
The refusals are heavily concentrated. Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Ghana accounted for 79.6% of all refusals recorded by Enroly.
Ghana had the highest refusal rate among the markets highlighted, at 43.9% of visa outcomes, followed by Sri Lanka at 30.0%, Bangladesh at 21.0% and Pakistan at 19.4%.
Nigeria alone accounted for 26.7% of all refusals, with Nigerian refusal numbers rising by around 160% year-on-year.
India’s refusal rate remained comparatively low at 2.4%, but the size of the market meant Indian applicants still represented 13% of refusals.
Looking at CAS issuance, some markets have seen particularly steep falls.
According to Enroly, Pakistan and Bangladesh “remain among the hardest hit after the Home Office tightened compliance rules, with several universities pausing recruitment there”.
Pakistan recorded the steepest decline among the ten markets analysed, with acceptances down 53.4% and CAS issuance plunging 62.7%. Bangladesh saw CAS issuance fall 41.6%, while Ghana was down 48.2% and Sri Lanka 45.1%
Nigeria “is the clearest conversion story”, according to Enroly. Nigerian acceptances actually increased 1.6%, but CAS issuance dropped 43.9% and acceptance-to-CAS conversion fell from 70.5% to 38.9%. Enroly attributed this largely to naira devaluation and tighter financial checks.
| Market | Acceptances, year-on-year | CAS issued, year-on-year | Acceptance-to-CAS conversion (last year) |
| American | -8.6% | -12.3% | 89.5% (93.3%) |
| Bangladeshi | -22.3% | -41.6% | 53.1% (70.7%) |
| Chinese | +0.9% | +2.0% | 94.4% (93.5%) |
| Ghanaian | -13.8% | -48.2% | 35.4% (58.9%) |
| Indian | -19.3% | -27.4% | 65.1% (72.4%) |
| Kenyan | -7.3% | -29.2% | 54.0% (70.7%) |
| Nepalese | +21.5% | +15.5% | 70.2% (73.9%) |
| Nigerian | +1.6% | -43.9% | 38.9% (70.5%) |
| Pakistani | -53.4% | -62.7% | 50.6% (63.2%) |
| Sri Lankan | -13.1% | -45.1% | 47.4% (75.0%) |
There were pockets of resilience. Chinese CAS issuance increased 2.0%, while Nepal rose 15.5%, with Enroly pointing to Nepal picking up students displaced by Australia’s tougher visa environment.
But the US, identified as a potential growth market in Enroly’s previous briefing, reversed course, with CAS issuance down 12.3%.
Enroly cautioned against directly comparing its figures with the Home Office’s most recently reported 4.9% rolling refusal rate. The government figure covers all UK sponsors and visa categories over 12 months, whereas Enroly’s figures are based on student-declared outcomes at its partner universities for a single intake.
Winter said she expects “continued pressure” into the next intake.
Affordability, tighter compliance requirements and changes to post-study work rights will continue to shape the decisions students and universities make
Catherine Winter, Enroly and Ecctis
“Affordability, tighter compliance requirements and changes to post-study work rights will continue to shape the decisions students and universities make,” she explained.
However, Winter said “there are reasons for cautious optimism”.
“Within our network, some markets and subject areas are still growing, showing that opportunities remain. We’ll have more data on the January intake soon, giving us a clearer indication of how these pressures are playing out,” she said.
“There has never been a greater need for up-to-date, live data to inform decisions. Universities need to understand how their intake is developing, where applicants are progressing or stalling, and how that compares with wider market trends – early enough to act.”
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