BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 4:13 p.m. ET · Source: Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) decision, as reported by InfoMoney, Metrópoles and CNN Brasil
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, electoral court justice André Mendonça suspended a Lula campaign TV ad that linked Flávio Bolsonaro to militias.
- The penalty Lula’s campaign faces a fine of R$10,000 (about US$1,970) for each new broadcast of the ad.
- The reasons Mendonça found the ad presented Flávio Bolsonaro as part of organised crime without showing the link, and found its AI-generated characters simulating real testimonies irregular.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (16 October, 4:10 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 24% and 23%), as of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The full electoral court has yet to ratify the decision, and Lula’s campaign had not responded in the reports seen.
A Brazilian electoral judge has ordered an ad by President Lula’s campaign off the air because it tied his runoff rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, to militias. Justice André Mendonça of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) suspended it on Thursday 15 October, and it was reported on Friday 16 October.
The ruling lands nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October. It matters for US readers because the campaign is now fought as much in court as on television, with each side asking judges to pull the other’s material.
What the Court Ordered on the Lula Ad
Mendonça ordered the immediate suspension of a spot shown in free television airtime on Tuesday 13 October, InfoMoney reported. The ad mixed reports of militia violence, purported victim testimonies and news clips with an excerpt of a 2007 speech Flávio Bolsonaro gave as a state legislator.
The order also bars reproductions with substantially equivalent content, InfoMoney and CNN Brasil reported. Metrópoles said the fine of R$10,000 (about US$1,970 at 5.07 reais per US dollar) per broadcast applies to Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and their coalition.
Why the Judge Called It Unsupported
Mendonça found the ad went beyond political criticism by presenting the senator as part of organised crime without showing the link, Metrópoles reported. He also found the use of artificially created characters to simulate real testimonies irregular.
The ruling is preliminary and was reported as sent to the full court for ratification. Real news clips and true statements can still be judged misleading when combined into one message.
A Consistent Line on Both Sides
Mendonça noted that the court had earlier suspended a similar ad that linked Lula to crime, so the same standard must apply to both candidates, Metrópoles reported. Metrópoles also said he had favoured more freedom for this kind of propaganda but was outvoted on 13 October.
The TSE is the court that runs Brazil’s elections and judges campaign conduct, so its rulings bind both campaigns. The decision now goes to the full court for ratification.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil’s courts can remove campaign content in days, which sets the tone of the final stretch. Investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares should expect more such rulings until 25 October.
For anyone tracking US-Brazil relations, the runoff winner will shape trade and security ties for four years. Our Brazil election polls page lists every survey.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (16 October, 4:10 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$184.8 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on court rulings or new surveys.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.3% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 23%
As of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known when the full court will rule, or whether it will uphold Mendonça’s order. Lula’s campaign had not responded in the reports we reviewed.
It is also unclear how many voters saw the ad before it was pulled. No poll has measured whether it moved any votes.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the electoral court order on the Lula militia ad?
Justice André Mendonça suspended the ad at once on Thursday 15 October. Lula’s campaign faces a fine of R$10,000 (about US$1,970) for each new broadcast.
Why was the Lula ad suspended?
Mendonça found it presented Flávio Bolsonaro as part of organised crime without showing the link. He also found the use of AI-generated characters to simulate real testimonies irregular.
Is the ban on the Lula ad final?
No. The decision still needs ratification by the full electoral court, whose ruling can confirm or overturn it.
What are militias in Brazil?
Militias are armed criminal groups, often linked to current or former police officers, that control neighbourhoods, mainly in Rio de Janeiro. Linking a candidate to them is a grave charge in Brazilian politics.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, nine days after this decision was reported. Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: InfoMoney, 16 October 2026; Metrópoles, 16 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 15–16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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