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The story of 2026 player prop betting turns around this week.
No more betting on struggling players to get it right: We know where the Chargers stand, and there are no bets worth targeting on their No. 32-ranked offense in DVOA.
Tyler Shough did not record a rushing yard for the first time in his NFL career as Minnesota’s Brian Flores-led defense suffocated the Saints.
We hit some bets, and you won some money on Demario Douglas, but it wasn’t the week we wanted.
Week 6 NFL player props offer much more hope than last week.
RECORD: 6-8 (-2 units) | Long shots: 1-11 (-5.85 units)
NFL Week 6 player props picks, predictions and best bets
Nico Collins over 69.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) | Over 89.5 (+200, BetRivers) | Over 109.5 (+400, BetRivers) | 150+ (12/1, theScore Bet)
I think the numbers are deflated here because of the Texans’ trade of Marvin Harrison Jr., but that doesn’t stop me from backing Nico Collins this week.
In a must-win game on Sunday in London, the Texans have their man-coverage destroyer to go to.
Collins’ total has been between 71.5 and 72.5 in each of the three games he’s played, so this number is a tick down from normal.
Over the last three seasons, Collins has destroyed man coverage, achieving an obscene 4.32 yards per route run, which the Jaguars use second most in the league in high-leverage spots.
Collins’ recent games against the Jaguars also tell a story of a player who Jacksonville simply cannot contain.
He has at least 100 yards in five straight games against the Jaguars, including both matchups last year.
Here are his marks in those five meetings: 136 yards, 104 yards, 119 yards, 151 yards, and 104 yards.
Collins is a must-bet in this spot, Harrison Jr.’s arrival is irrelevant to him.
Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown scorer (+300, Novig) | 2+ touchdowns (30/1, FanDuel)
Jake Ferguson had a case of the drops last week for Dallas and we’re getting a massive discount on him this week as a result.
As is always the goal in sports wagering, we’re looking to get the best numbers and values on players.
On “Sunday Night Football,” we have a massive projected total of 52.5 total points between the Cowboys and Packers, implying seven touchdowns will be scored in this game.
Let’s buy the dip here and say thank you in what will be a bettor’s delight of a game.
Ferguson is third on the team among starters in redzone targets with four and he’s scored three touchdowns on those opportunities.
Adding some more intrigue was how demonstrative his quarterback Dak Prescott was in support of Ferguson, who apologized profusely to the team for his dropped pass that lost them the game 10 days ago against the Buccaneers.
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Ferguson is also fourth in the NFL among all tight ends in redzone catches, so this is really an excellent value shot in what will be a very high scoring affair.
Green Bay’s main defenseman for tight ends, Edgerrin Cooper, went down with a torn Achilles and he will miss the rest of the season. This gives Ferguson a leg up to potentially beat up on a backup at linebacker.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.