LONDON: As Israel heads toward elections, its bulldozers are pushing deeper into southern Syria, widening the gap between diplomatic efforts to reach a security agreement and developments on the ground.
In the hills of Quneitra province, excavation work on a project known as the Sufa 53 Line is reshaping terrain near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and raising questions about Israel’s intentions as Damascus pursues negotiations.
Analysts say the work could entrench Israel’s military presence, strengthen its negotiating leverage and put pressure on the Syrian Arab Republic’s new government.
“Israel’s expansionist intentions were never hidden from the beginning, when it moved into Syria after the fall of (longtime President) Bashar Assad,” Hussein Chokr, a Beirut-based policy expert, told Arab News.
“Israel is a clear beneficiary of this expansion and is working to widen the margin of gains it can extract from it.”
Chokr said Israel was seeking greater defensive depth, with potential benefits whether or not its presence became permanent.
“If it succeeds with no real objections, it may annex this space and turn it into a new border,” he said. “If it fails, it will still have acquired an additional card of pressure and leverage against a Syrian government seeking negotiations from a position of inequality.”
Syrian media reported on Oct. 4 that Israeli forces had resumed excavation west of Al-Asha village. More than seven Israeli bulldozers, along with other heavy vehicles, were seen digging near the separation line, extending a route through rural communities from northern to southern Quneitra.
Damascus condemned the work as a “flagrant violation” of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement and a breach of international resolutions.
According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, excavation began inside Syrian territory in the buffer zone, stretching from the outskirts of Hadar toward Jubata Al-Khashab and Hamidiyah. The route runs through Qahhtaniyah, Ruwayhinah, Bir Ajam and Bariqa before reaching Al-Asha and the southern sector.
The project has reportedly advanced through mine clearance, road construction and trench digging, followed by the building of earthen berms, observation posts and military positions. Syrian media also reported Israeli incursions hundreds of meters into the disengagement zone along some routes.
The latest excavation coincided with incursions into Saida Al-Golan and Abidin, as well as shelling and gunfire elsewhere in the south, according to those reports.
Israel repeatedly sought to justify its continued military presence in southern Syria on security grounds.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened on Sept. 23 to seize and permanently retain more Syrian territory. He rejected demands to withdraw troops from land occupied since Dec. 8, 2024, when a rebel offensive led by present President Ahmad Al-Sharaa ousted Assad.
That stance contrasts with the progress Damascus has reported in security negotiations. On Sept. 23, Al-Sharaa said Syria and Israel had “almost reached 90 percent of agreements” before Israel withdrew for “different reasons.”
However, Al-Sharaa said his government remained committed to diplomacy.
Samy Akil, a political analyst and senior adviser to The Syria Report, said the implications of the earthworks might take time to emerge.
Over the longer term, however, the project “undermines the notion that Syria and Israel have agreed on 90 percent of a security framework and terms for discussions,” he told Arab News.
And while Chokr sees the earthworks as a means of securing territory or negotiating leverage, Ghassan Ibrahim, director of the UK office of TRENDS Research & Advisory, places greater emphasis on Israeli domestic politics.
Ibrahim said that military activity in southern Syria was serving as an electoral tool for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. “Israeli media close to Netanyahu are trying to portray that presence as a way to prevent something like what happened in Gaza from happening again,” he told Arab News.
Ibrahim expects little change while the current government remains in office, saying it is likely to continue to intimidate Syrians and expand its military footprint in some areas.
The election outcome, he added, will help determine whether Damascus has a counterpart willing to engage in serious negotiations.
Akil likewise sees the vote as a turning point in Syria’s diplomatic calculations.
“In the long term, a deal has to be reached,” he said. “I think Syria has to take the punches for now until the elections are over, as is the case with a lot of other regional countries, and then see how it can calibrate its future engagement depending on the outcome and who its counterpart in the negotiations is.”
An election would not necessarily bring a fundamental shift. Ibrahim anticipates, at most, a “limited change that could prompt Israel to reassess the risks and long-term value of its presence in southern Syria.”
He argued that maintaining the current approach might offer short-term political benefits but would neither make Israel safer over time nor create conditions for substantive talks.
For Damascus, meanwhile, the alternatives to diplomacy offer little prospect of a better outcome, Ibrahim said, adding: “Military confrontation would achieve little, while suspending negotiations in protest would not necessarily strengthen Syria’s position.”
His prescription is to monitor developments, preserve room to maneuver and avoid decisions that could foreclose future talks. “The right move at this time is to wait and see and be ready for all options,” he said.
But waiting carries risks of its own, particularly in communities where the government’s authority is already limited.
Farmers and rural communities are reportedly navigating an expanding military footprint where Syrian authorities have little capacity to intervene.
Akil said Israel’s continued violations could undermine Damascus’ ability to assert sovereignty in the south, including in Suweida and Daraa.
“In Quneitra, there is no Syrian authority to turn to, and people, including farmers, are having to deal with this issue daily without any support,” he said.
That absence could have political consequences beyond the immediate security crisis.
“If there is one thing anyone working on Syria should not underestimate, it is the impact of civilians and civilian protest movements in the south,” Akil said. “The last time widespread protests erupted in the south, we ended up with a 14-year-long revolution and conflict.”
Chokr similarly warned that residents who feel abandoned could turn against the new government or choose armed resistance.
To offset those pressures, Akil said, Damascus is deepening its engagement with countries including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, seeking support without taking military action that could jeopardize negotiations.
“Damascus knows it can only play the waiting game for now,” he said.
For Chokr, that leaves Syria’s new rulers in an “unenviable position.” They must consolidate their authority, end violence, protect the country from external threats and improve living conditions — demands that compete for attention and resources.
Economic recovery, he argued, remains the most important test of their durability, even as Israel’s presence challenges their authority in the south.
“The new authorities are unlikely to face an existential threat to their survival if they manage to improve the economy, even if Israel expands its borders further into southern Syria,” he said.