Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $10,000, calling the cryptocurrency a “complete stock puppet” whose performance remains heavily influenced by US equities.
Speaking to Maggie Lake on Welthion recently, McGlone argued that Bitcoin has yet to demonstrate the resilience needed to justify more optimistic expectations. He pointed to its relationship with the S&P 500, suggesting that a broader stock market downturn could put additional pressure on BTC.
“The bottom line is it’s already flunked the main test this year,” McGlone said.
Notably, the strategist first made his $10,000 forecast in 2024, when Bitcoin traded near $109,000. He has continued to defend the prediction even after the cryptocurrency advanced toward $126,000.
McGlone argued that investors have become increasingly dependent on US financial markets, leaving assets across several sectors vulnerable to the same downturn.
“We’re all complete stock puppets,” he said, grouping Bitcoin, copper and gold among assets increasingly sensitive to movements in equities.
“If the stock market drops 10%, you’ll see a good test,” he added, suggesting a significant decline would expose how much Bitcoin depends on broader market conditions.
He also pointed to the US Treasury market and the country’s mounting debt as potential headwinds. He added that higher bond yields can make fixed-income investments more attractive than riskier assets, potentially weakening demand for Bitcoin.
McGlone further questioned whether Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative could continue supporting its valuation as the number of competing cryptocurrencies grows.
However, McGlone’s bearish outlook contrasts with findings from analysts at Japan-based DeFi asset management platform XWIN, who identified several on-chain indicators suggesting Bitcoin’s selling pressure may be stabilizing.
In a Monday post on X, the analysts highlighted relatively low BTC reserves on exchanges, a recovery in apparent demand from deeply negative levels, and whale holdings that had risen to approximately 3 million BTC.
However, apparent demand remained below zero, meaning the recovery had not yet provided definitive confirmation of a sustained bullish reversal.
XWIN also pointed to high US bond yields, elevated oil prices, slowing ETF inflows and profit-taking as factors that could leave Bitcoin exposed to further downside. They said a stronger recovery would require sustained exchange-traded fund inflows, stronger US spot-market buying, and continued demand growth.
“These developments suggest conditions for a bottom are improving,” they wrote, emphasizing, “Uptober” need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance.”
Elsewhere, Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost issued a caution, reporting that Bitcoin’s seller-exhaustion indicator had reached levels comparable to those associated with local market peaks during the current cycle.
“Bitcoin has entered a phase where selling pressure has clearly intensified,” Darkfost said, explaining that the indicator combines supply in profit with volatility to identify periods of elevated or reduced market risk.
The analyst noted that the shift had been particularly pronounced among short-term holders, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable if demand fails to absorb additional selling.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $81,543, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours.