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Must-win territory for the 2-4 Jets.
The Dolphins are 0-5 and have looked mostly lifeless this season as they head to MetLife Stadium to face the Jets as just 4.5-point underdogs.
From a betting perspective, it’s challenging to find an angle on the Dolphins.
Miami is No. 32 in DVOA, while the Jets come in at No. 17.
It’s the second time this season that the Dolphins have been underdogs by less than a touchdown, the other being in Week 5 against the Bengals, who closed at -6.5.
Miami trailed by double digits for most of the game before scoring a garbage-time touchdown to close the deficit to a touchdown in the 31-24 setback.
Here’s the reality: I’m just not betting real money on the Dolphins when they’re getting less than seven points against anyone.
The reason being is I disagree with the Dolphins’ operating strategy.
Malik Willis has been terrible so far this year, ranking dead last in the league, according to Pro Football Focus, among 35 qualified quarterbacks.
He’s just not running the ball as much as we projected.
Perhaps it’s coaching, but the Dolphins’ only chance to stay in games is to let Willis run the ball 10 times a game, but they’re reluctant to do so and the team is suffering as a result.
Willis hasn’t run the ball more than nine times this year.
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Unless that changes, the Jets will crush the Dolphins.
Target the Jets -4.5 as they are No. 16 in Expected Points Added (+.02) while the Dolphins are dead last in the league there (-0.23).
PREDICTION: Jets -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.