The Houthis' siege of Taiz is a slow-burning campaign that could signal the eventual fall of western Yemen, a former prime minister of the country has warned.
Maeen Abdelmalik Saeed, who held office from 2018 to 2024, said the city of Taiz in south-western Yemen is an important stronghold for the government that needs to be defended at all costs.
“It’s a battle which concerns all of the west [of Yemen],” he told The National. “There is no opportunity after that if we can’t reclaim Taiz again, to build a new momentum against the Houthis and Sanaa. This is the importance of Taiz.”
There is still time, said Mr Saeed, because the Houthis currently control “significant, important heights” in the Yemeni Highlands around Taiz but are now in a consolidation phase. They had closed off most of the roads into the city of slightly less than one million people but had stopped short of a complete blockade. This was to buy time to consolidate control in the rural outskirts of the city, said Mr Saeed.
“They are trying to control all the roads to the city and it seems that they want to seize control of these rural areas and absorb them before they expand into the city. The Houthis will close the siege when they control all these areas.”
The attack on Taiz is “intense and ongoing”, said Mr Saeed. “There is a severe shortage of medicine and fuel in the city's hospitals,” he added.
The rebel group invaded the south-west coast of Yemen last month to enforce its blockade on oil being shipped from Saudi Arabia. Its capture of the port city of Mokha gave it control of the Bab Al Mandab strait, which Saudi Arabia relied on to export oil. A government-led offensive has seized the centre of Mokha but heavy bombardment from the surrounding hills still held by Houthi forces is taking place.
The pattern of fighting demonstrates Houthi ambitions to capture other key cities in western Yemen, Mr Saeed warned. On Thursday, Houthi missiles were fired at the Presidential Palace in Aden, killing five people.
There are also signs the Houthis are planning to attack Lahj, a city less than 40km from Aden that houses one of Yemen’s largest military camps, Mr Saeed, who now serves as presidential adviser, said Lahj is well positioned for the Houthis to launch assaults on their “three main targets” of Taiz, Aden and Mareb.
Hinge city
Though food and fuel could still enter Taiz from Aden, this relief would be only temporary. “In a matter of days or weeks, we will see a siege and attempts to enter the city,” he said.
Yet the group knows it will face considerable resistance within Taiz and on its outskirts. “The Houthis always rely on their radical religious teachings – the only obstacle to this was Taiz, because it carried the idea of democracy and the modern state,” said Mr Saeed, who comes from the city.
Some tribal families from the Hashemite dynasties may be more sympathetic to an agreement with the Houthis. But local resistance to the group would form quickly, drawing on Taiz’s history of being ruled by Zaydi Imams of northern Yemen, he said.
The Houthis would struggle to finance the administration of Taiz. “They cannot provide salaries, they don’t have the financial resources to run the city. Militarily they might succeed for a while, but it will be a burden and a threat,” said Mr Saeed.
The Houthis have hit Saudi Aramco facilities and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh recent days, in addition to attacking Saudi ships passing through the Bab Al Mandeb strait.
A Saudi official on Thursday conceded that the Houthi advances in Yemen were being “encouraged by Iran”, which continues to arm and train the militia.
Last card
Mr Saeed agreed, saying he believes Iran is playing “one of its last cards” in the Gulf, since Arab states have adapted to attacks on supply lines. “Iranians may be upset that the way of raising the costs and threatening the Gulf countries is not doing the job.”
Houthi capabilities have grown in the past five years. They now have advanced weaponry, for which the Yemeni government and its Gulf allies were unprepared. The group is allegedly using Chinese technology to manufacture weapons in the city of Hodeidah, according to the Conflict Armament Research Group.
The internationally recognised Yemeni government has spoken to Chinese counterparts on the matter but Beijing denied involvement. “They denied it, they said 'maybe it’s a third party,'” said Mr Saeed. Foreign Minister Afrah Al Zouba said China had promised to investigate the matter.
The situation could encourage other groups such as Al Shabab in Somalia to follow suit in developing new missiles. “The problem is that this will encourage different radical groups to adopt this cheap technology,” said Mr Saeed.