It's not Friday night yet, but Brandon Miller just got paid.
On Monday evening, just over an hour before the rookie-extension deadline, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that Charlotte and their ascending swingman agreed on five-year, $209M dollar contract extension that will lock Miller into the Queen City until 2032.
Let's talk about it.
Breaking Down the Deal
In my opinion, this deal is more about who Charlotte thinks Miller is going to be than who he has been. Earlier this summer I projected Miller to sign a five-year, $185M extension, so clearly I believe that the Hornets overpaid here.
The number two overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft holds career averages of 19.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game, on 43/37/86 splits. Miller was one of the league's premier three-point marksman last season, connecting on a career-high 38% of his 8.2 long-range attempts a night.
Miller's three-point stroke is the premier skill that his game is built around. Combine his marksmanship with a penchant for event creation on defense (64th percentile among wings in deflections, 61st in stop %, elite contest numbers) and a marked improvement as a two-way rebounder in year three, and you get the blurry outline of a franchise-defining talent on the wing.
He still has plenty of room to grow, though, evidenced by his struggles in the preseason. Which makes this a contract that Miller needs to grow into for him to deliver value on Charlotte's dollars.
The aforementioned preseason struggles were simple: Miller lacks a clear way to affect the game inside of the arc.
His handle is good, but not good enough to create space against hounding wing defenders.
He has bulked up in his three years as an NBA player, but not enough to deliver punishing blows on downhill drives that bury smaller marks into the stanction on his way to the basket.
Miller is a solid live-dribble passer with a keen eye for open lanes to create shots for his teammates, but his efficacy as a creation hub from possession-to-possessions has room to grow.
His reliance on off-ball movement has been exploited by uber-physical teams in high-pressure situations.
This contract is a bet on who Miller will be when Jeff Peterson and company think they will be ready to compete for a championship in a couple of years, and they clearly believe that he has the work ethic to grind through these flaws and become a two-way star in the NBA.
Miller is set to make $41.8M per-year from 2027-2032. That number is right in line with OG Anunoby (elite role player who starred in the Knicks championship run), Tyrese Maxey (two-time All-Star, one-time All-NBA), Amen Thompson (First-team All-Defense), Jalen Duren (one-time All-Star, one-time All-NBA, one brawl incited at the Spectrum Center), and a former All-Star named LaMelo Ball.
Each of those players has reached heights in the NBA that Miller is yet to touch.
Charlotte's belief in their highly-paid superstar isn't unfounded, but again, he has a ways to go to live up to the contract that the franchise just shelled out for him.
A couple of all-encompassing numbers believe that Miller is a borderline top-50 player (LEBRON: 72nd overall; LAKER 60th overall; 1Y RAPM: 25th overall), and those metrics may not be wrong. He could come alive this season, take a major jump in all of the areas that he has struggled, and establish himself as the cornerstone piece of the Charlotte Hornets.
However, if Miller stays stagnant, this contract could age poorly. Big wings who can space the floor are always useful in the modern NBA, but Charlotte isn't paying Miller to be a role player.
They're paying him to be a star.
And he'll have a major opportunity to prove that he is exactly that when the regular season tips off in just over 48 hours.
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