Copper prices could fall towards US$10,000 per tonne if United States President Donald Trump abandons proposed import tariffs, as uncertainty over the policy threatens to reverse a rally that pushed prices close to US$15,000 last month, Access Bank has said.
In its latest market commentary, the bank said traders were reassessing the outlook as the premium between United States Comex and London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures narrowed, indicating weakening expectations that the tariffs would be implemented.
The proposed tariffs had triggered a surge in copper shipments to the United States, tightening supplies in other markets and pushing LME prices to record levels.
However, shipments of copper from Africa to the United States have started to decline, reflecting changing market expectations, the bank said.
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“If the proposed tariffs are scrapped, copper prices could retreat towards $10,000 per tonne as the tariff-driven premium unwinds,” Access Bank said.
The bank said large copper stockpiles in the United States and financing arrangements could limit the volume of metal returning to international markets, cushioning a potential price decline.
Conversely, a delay in implementing the tariffs could reignite the rally, with prices potentially climbing to $18,000 per tonne, it said.
Such a development could encourage traders to accelerate shipments to the United States, tightening supplies elsewhere, particularly in China, and intensifying competition for available metal.
Access Bank said the outlook remained uncertain, with tariff decisions, rising energy prices, interest rates and weakening global equity markets likely to shape the balance between supply constraints and slowing demand.
Copper price movements are significant for Zambia, where the metal is a major export earner and source of foreign exchange.
Meanwhile, the kwacha weakened further against the dollar during Friday’s trading session.
Bloomberg data showed the local currency depreciated by about 1.74% to close just above K20.40 per dollar, extending its losing streak to four consecutive trading sessions.
The decline marked the kwacha’s third successive weekly loss and its largest weekly drop since June 19.
Access Bank attributed the pressure on the local currency to sustained demand for foreign exchange exceeding available supply, while the dollar strengthened modestly against major currencies.
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