Fed chair Kevin Warsh boosts market expectations of rate hold in October

Published Fri, Oct 16, 2026 · 03:24 PM

[WASHINGTON] US Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh did nothing to dispel market expectations that the US central bank will hold interest rates steady when it meets at the end of October.

In a moderated discussion on Friday (Oct 16) morning in Bangkok at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings, he made no remarks on monetary policy or his outlook for the US economy, apart from reiterating that the Fed will deliver price stability.

“We made very clear that we would deliver price stability, and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago,” he said. “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year.”

Investors pared their bets for a rate hike at the central bank’s Oct 27 to 28 policy gathering.

The odds, which were hovering around 27 per cent before Warsh spoke, dropped below 15 per cent following his remarks. Stocks extended gains and the greenback edged lower, with futures for the S&P 500 Index erasing losses to climb 0.2 per cent.

“It was clear that he wasn’t going to deliver anything that the market could latch on to as hawkish,” Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics, wrote in a note to clients.

The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point in September, the first hike since 2023. It was backed by all 19 policymakers, and a majority also saw another increase as likely this year.

Warsh said on Friday that “the world has broadly conformed to our expectations” since the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September.

A few key officials in recent weeks reiterated that additional rate hikes may be needed, but emphasised they have time to gather economic data before acting again.

“Alongside other recent comments from FOMC participants, Warsh’s comments indicate that the FOMC is set to pause in October,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note, adding that they expect a final hike in December.

Warsh repeated his bullish views on artificial intelligence, calling it the most important innovation in the global economy during his lifetime. But he also warned that it may be driving demand in the near term.

The Fed chief said that as a central banker, he is taking the new technology seriously but also “soberly, responsibly”.

“It’s obviously hitting the demand side of the economy before it’s going to hit the supply side of the economy,” he said. “If you’re a central banker, you’re in the business of trying to ensure stable prices and full employment, you’ve got to recognise this as a shock.”

While it is a positive supply shock in the medium term, he argued, it is driving increases in aggregate demand now and the impact on employment is uncertain.

Some of his colleagues have expressed similar concerns, even questioning whether the surge in investment that is buoying the AI build-out could lead to an overheating of the economy.

Warsh also announced that his task force on productivity and jobs – which is grappling with the implications of AI – will hold a field hearing in the San Francisco Bay Area on Nov 16.

It is one of five task forces he convened that will present recommendations to the FOMC late 2026 or early in 2027. BLOOMBERG